Commodities Kalshi June 29, 2026
Oil price falls below $71
Oil Price (WTI) on Jun 26, 2026?
Kalshi prices this Below $71.00 at 73%.
The oil price has fallen below $71.00. Signs that traffic through the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route is gradually resuming has helped to push the oil price down. With the crowd's probability on this outcome at 73%, the money had largely expected this result, which came as more tankers exit the strait of Hormuz.
Background
Over the period we tracked it, the market's odds have climbed, with several outlets noting the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on oil prices.
What the coverage agrees on
- Oil price has fallen to pre-Iran war levels
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resuming
How outlets frame it
- BBC: Signs that traffic through the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route is gradually resuming has helped to push the oil price down
- The Guardian: Oil price falls to pre-Iran war levels as more tankers exit strait of Hormuz
What to watch
The concrete consequences of this result will be closely watched, particularly in terms of its impact on energy ETFs and the global economy.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Below $71.00 at 73%.
24h -2.0 pts
$78.9K traded · $35.5K in the last day · $27.5K open interest
Resolves on: If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(August 2026 contract) on June 26, 2026 is below 71.00 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 73%
Sources
- Current price of oil as of June 26, 2026 fortune.com
- Oil Prices, Jun. 29, 2026 energyintel.com
- Energy ETFs to Buy as Oil Price Slides to Pre-Iran War Level tradingview.com
- Oil price falls to pre-Iran war levels as more tankers exit strait of Hormuz theguardian.com
- Stocks and oil prices rise with eyes on Iran; yen touches 40-year low vs dollar reuters.com
Frequently asked questions
Oil Price (WTI) on Jun 26, 2026?
Kalshi prices this Below $71.00 at 73%.
What do the sources agree on?
Oil price has fallen to pre-Iran war levels Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resuming
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(August 2026 contract) on June 26, 2026 is below 71.00 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.