Mispriced
Odds vs. headlines
Prediction markets and the press don't always agree. These are the live stories where the money runs ahead of the reporting, or the coverage disputes what traders believe — the gap is the signal.
Every story below pairs the crowd's price on Polymarket or Kalshi with a cross-source read of the coverage. "Crowd ahead of press" means traders are more confident than the reporting; "coverage disputes this" means outlets are pushing back on the favored outcome. It updates as the odds and the headlines move.
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Oil Prices Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions
WTI crude oil prices have reached a six-week high, with recent reports indicating a significant uptick following escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S., alongside alleged…
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Lula, Bolsonaro Battle for Brazil Presidency
The upcoming Brazilian presidential election on October 4, 2026, is shaping up to be a fiercely contested battle, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing a strong…
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Far-Right Surge in German State Elections
Germany's political landscape is experiencing a notable shift following the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's triumph in a recent state election. This victory marks…
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Iran Signals Readiness for New Peace Talks
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled his country's readiness to resume senior-level peace talks with the United States, a development that comes as a crucial ceasefire…
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UN Watchdog Refers Iran to Security Council Over Nuclear Program
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has referred Iran to the UN Security Council, marking the first such action in 20 years, amid growing concerns over its nuclear…
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Anthropic AI Fears Mount After Researcher Quits
A former Anthropic researcher has publicly resigned, citing grave concerns that the company's AI models are becoming "out-of-control" and pose a significant threat to humanity.…
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Bitcoin Struggles to Break Above $82,500 Amid Market Nerves
Bitcoin's price action has been notably weakened by recent market nerves, particularly following the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act, a key crypto industry bill. While…
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US Recession Looms by Year-End 2026
The prospect of a US recession by the end of 2026 is drawing attention from economic observers, with some analysts forecasting a significant downturn. While no consensus has…
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Bitcoin Price Faces Uncertainty Amidst 2026 Predictions
The question of whether Bitcoin's spot price will dip below $55,000 by early 2027 is being closely watched, with the cryptocurrency having seen significant gains from recent lows.…
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Talarico Gains Ground in Texas Senate Race
The race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas is intensifying, with Democratic challenger James Talarico receiving a significant endorsement just two months before the midterm…
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Google's AI Text Market Share Nears Key 16.4% Threshold
Google's performance in the OpenRouter text market is a focal point this week, with industry observers closely watching whether the tech giant can secure more than 16.4% of the…
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AutoZone Earnings Call: Will "Mega-Hub" Be Mentioned?
AutoZone's next earnings call is drawing attention, with observers keen to hear if the phrase "Mega-Hub / Mega Hub" will be uttered by any company representative. The specific…
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Anthropic's Claude Faces AI Competition and Internal Strife
Anthropic's Claude AI is navigating a turbulent period, marked by a significant new competitor and internal dissent, as the race for the top language model intensifies towards the…