Mispriced
Odds vs. headlines
Prediction markets and the press don't always agree. These are the live stories where the money runs ahead of the reporting, or the coverage disputes what traders believe — the gap is the signal.
Every story below pairs the crowd's price on Polymarket or Kalshi with a cross-source read of the coverage. "Crowd ahead of press" means traders are more confident than the reporting; "coverage disputes this" means outlets are pushing back on the favored outcome. It updates as the odds and the headlines move.
-
US-Iran Conflict Escalates as US Carries Out Strikes on Iran
The US military has carried out strikes on Iran, escalating the conflict as both sides threaten civilian infrastructure. The situation remains volatile, with the US and Iran…
-
Fed Officials Divided Over Interest Rate Outlook
Federal Reserve officials remain deeply divided on the future trajectory of interest rates, with a wide range of economic and inflation scenarios under consideration. This…
-
Rubio sits down with Fox News: My View amid Trump succession chatter
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to appear on Fox News: My View on August 1 at 9:00 PM ET, an interview that lands amid a dense stretch of foreign-policy news —…
-
Iran's Hormuz fees plan sparks fresh tensions with US and Gulf allies
The Iranian government is reportedly considering a plan to charge commercial vessels for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has sparked fresh tensions with the US…
-
Fed faces September rate decision amid inflation concerns
The Federal Open Market Committee is set to vote on the upper bound of the federal funds rate at its September meeting, a decision that could reshape borrowing costs as inflation…
-
Bitcoin tests $67,500 ceiling as August opens after July rally
Bitcoin heads into August 2026 with a 10% July rally behind it, but analysts are split on whether that momentum carries through or marks a peak before a pullback. The largest…
-
Liberty host Mercury in August WNBA matchup with rookie storylines in focus
The New York Liberty are scheduled to host the Phoenix Mercury in a WNBA game on August 15, 2026, and a narrow question hangs over the broadcast: whether any official commentator…
-
Lebanon's Aoun seeks Trump backing for Israeli pullback amid fragile ceasefire
Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun traveled to Washington in late July to meet with President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, pressing for a full Israeli withdrawal from…
-
US and Iran Resume Nuclear Talks Amid Escalating Conflict
US and Iran have resumed nuclear talks, with a key focus on uranium enrichment levels. The talks come amid an escalating conflict between the two nations. While the market…
-
RFK Jr. faces Hatch Act probe as 2028 GOP nomination talk persists
A Senate Democrat has requested an investigation into whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. violated the Hatch Act, according to The Hill, adding a new legal dimension to questions about…
-
Iran's Khamenei faces mounting pressure as regime change rumors intensify
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is facing mounting pressure as rumors of regime change swirl, with the Supreme Leader's future hanging in the balance. Despite the rumors,…
-
Paxton and Talarico agree to debate in Texas Senate race
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic Congressman James Talarico have agreed to debate in the U.S. Senate race for the term beginning in 2027, a fresh development that…
-
Oil rallies on US-Iran escalation as record crack spreads signal tight refining
Crude oil futures are surging as direct US-Iran military exchanges escalate and refining margins hit record highs in 2026, tightening an already strained supply picture. Forbes…
-
UK Plunges into Extreme Weather, Climate Whiplash Takes Hold
The UK is in the midst of a chaotic weather pattern, with extreme heat and cold events occurring in rapid succession, a phenomenon known as climate whiplash. This rapid shift in…
-
Anthropic eyes top AI model spot as Chinese labs close gap
Anthropic is positioning itself to hold the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the final 2026 ranking is checked on December 31, a benchmark that has…
-
Bitcoin tests $50,000 floor as analysts split on 2026 bottom
Veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt has circulated a specific date for Bitcoin's 2026 price bottom, backed by three AI models that project a trough lower than many investors…
-
Anthropic's Claude faces a DeepSeek challenge as year-end AI crown looms
Anthropic is pushing its newest model, Claude, toward a year-end showdown for the title of top-ranked large language model on Dec. 31, 2026, and a new contender is complicating…
-
NASA's Alien Search: U.S. Officials Weigh in on Extraterrestrial Life
NASA's latest findings have sparked renewed interest in the search for alien life, with U.S. officials weighing in on the possibility of extraterrestrial existence. The crowd is…