Crypto · Kalshi ·July 24, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Bitcoin price forecast hinges on December close

As the year draws to a close, Bitcoin's price remains stuck in a bear market, with many analysts predicting a rebound to $100,000 by year-end. However, despite a 13% recovery from July's lows, the cryptocurrency is rangebound between $64,000 and $66,800, with macro markets offering little direction. Traders are putting a 13% probability on the price being between 65,000 to 69,999.99 at the end of 2026, a modest move from 24 hours ago. The research released by the organization said that crypto companies will directly or indirectly lead to 232,000 jobs across the entire US economy in 2026, which may have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency's price.

Background

Bitcoin's price has been volatile in 2026, with the cryptocurrency experiencing a significant decline in the first half of the year. However, in recent weeks, there has been a slight recovery, with Bitcoin's price rising by around 10% from its July lows. The cryptocurrency's price is influenced by a range of factors, including macroeconomic trends, regulatory developments, and the overall health of the global economy. The market resolves in about 161 days, with the price of Bitcoin being a key factor in determining the outcome.

What to watch

The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of Bitcoin's price, with the cryptocurrency's price expected to be influenced by a range of factors, including the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's meeting in December. A move above $66,800 could signal a shift in the market's sentiment, while a decline below $64,000 could indicate further weakness in the cryptocurrency's price.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.