Crypto · Polymarket ·July 13, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo Crowd ahead of press

Clarity Act Faces Uncertain Future in Congress

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) continues to navigate a challenging path through the U.S. Congress, with its prospects for becoming law by December 31, 2026, increasingly uncertain. Despite the Senate Banking Committee's approval in May, where two Democrats joined Republicans in a 15-9 vote to advance the legislation, the bill faces ongoing scrutiny and potential delays. Sources indicate a new version of the crypto market structure bill could be introduced as early as next week, suggesting ongoing revisions are needed to secure broader support. Traders, however, appear pessimistic about the bill's chances, with the probability of it not passing at 63%, reflecting a +8 pts shift over the past week.

Background

The Clarity Act aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, an issue that has long been a point of contention between innovators and regulators. The bill's journey has been complicated by discussions among Democrats focusing on ethics provisions, particularly concerning potential conflicts of interest related to President Trump's substantial personal crypto holdings. This focus on personal gains has become a key point in hashing out the bill's details, adding another layer of complexity to its legislative path. The ongoing debate underscores the broader challenge of integrating cryptocurrency into existing financial regulations while addressing concerns about market stability and investor protection.

The precedent

• Major legislative reforms concerning new financial technologies often take multiple years to pass through Congress due to complex stakeholder interests and regulatory debates.
• The U.S. has seen several attempts to introduce comprehensive crypto regulation in recent years, none of which have fully passed both chambers of Congress to become law.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The immediate focus will be on the potential release of a new version of the Clarity Act, which sources suggest could drop as soon as next week. This revised bill will likely reveal changes aimed at addressing the ethics concerns raised by Democrats, particularly regarding conflicts of interest. Its reception in both chambers of Congress, especially the Senate, will be crucial. Senator Moreno previously predicted an April passage, a timeline that has clearly not materialized, highlighting the unpredictable nature of this legislative process. The bill must pass both the House and Senate and be signed by the President by December 31, 2026, to resolve as "Yes."

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.