Guides

Prediction-market guides

How prediction markets work, how the platforms compare, how to read the odds — plus durable hubs for the events the crowd trades, with live odds embedded.

Explainers

• How Prediction Markets Work

  A plain explainer of how prediction markets work: contracts that pay $1 if an event happens, why prices read as crowd probabilities, and where they fall short.

• What Is Polymarket?

  Polymarket is a USDC-based prediction market where people trade on real-world events. Learn how it works, what it covers, and its US regulatory status.

• What Is Kalshi?

  Kalshi is a US, CFTC-regulated event-contracts exchange. Learn what it is, how it works, what you can trade, and how it differs from Polymarket.

• Are Prediction Markets Accurate? What the Evidence Shows

  A balanced, sourced look at prediction market accuracy: academic calibration findings, where markets beat polls, and where they fail on thin markets and bias.

• Kalshi vs Polymarket: How the Two Prediction Markets Compare

  Kalshi vs Polymarket compared on regulation, currency, US access, market breadth, fees, liquidity, and accuracy — and when each platform is more useful.

• How to Read Prediction-Market Odds

  A practical guide to reading prediction-market odds: price as implied probability, what moves and volume mean, and common misreadings to avoid.

• Prediction Markets vs. Polls: How They Differ and How to Read Both

  Prediction markets vs polls: what each actually measures, where each is strong or weak, why markets move faster, why polls can be more representative, and how to use both.

• Prediction Markets vs. Sportsbooks: How Each One Sets a Price

  Prediction markets and sportsbooks both quote odds on outcomes, but they price, profit, and are regulated differently. A plain-English explainer of how each works.

Event hubs

• Fed Rate Decision Odds Explained

  How prediction markets and futures price the odds of a Fed rate hike, hold, or cut, how FOMC meetings work, and which data moves the probabilities.

• 2028 US Presidential Election Odds

  How 2028 US presidential election odds work: the primary-to-general race structure, key dates, how winner markets resolve, and why early odds swing.

• US Recession Odds: How Markets Price the Risk of a Downturn

  How US recession odds work: the NBER definition vs. the two-quarter rule, the indicators markets watch, how recession markets resolve, and why timing is hard.

• 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Odds: How the Outright Markets Work

  How 2026 FIFA World Cup winner odds work and resolve on prediction markets, the expanded 48-team format and dates, and what moves the outright probabilities.

• Super Bowl Odds and NFL Championship Futures

  How Super Bowl futures markets work, the NFL season and playoff timeline, how to-win-it-all odds resolve, and what moves them. A plain, evergreen explainer.

• NBA Finals and Championship Odds, Explained

  How NBA championship futures and Finals odds work: playoff structure, how markets resolve, and what shifts a team's title probability across a season.

• Bitcoin Price Prediction Odds

  How Bitcoin price prediction markets work: what "BTC above $X by date" odds mean, how they resolve on Polymarket and Kalshi, and how to read them.

• Oscars Odds: A Guide to Academy Awards Prediction Markets

  How Oscars odds and Academy Awards prediction markets work: Best Picture, the awards-season timeline, what resolves a market, and what moves the numbers.