Event hub

2028 US Presidential Election Odds

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts on who will win the 2028 US presidential election, and the live prices imply a probability for each candidate. These are crowd estimates, not forecasts of certainty or any form of advice. This hub explains how the race is structured from primaries to the general election, the dates that move odds, how election-winner markets resolve, and why prices this far out are volatile. The live-markets section above shows current numbers; this page explains how to read them.

Live markets & odds

• Gavin Newsom Front-Runner for 2028 Democratic Nomination

  June 16, 2026·Polymarket·Gavin Newsom 25%·8 sources

  Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic 2028 field with 25% market odds, despite +0.7 pts inactivity over seven days and $1.2B high trading. While outlets like The Hill and Politico…

How to read an election-odds number

On prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, a contract on a candidate trades between 0 and 100 cents (or 0% to 100%). The price is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. A candidate trading at 30 cents implies a roughly 30% chance of winning as priced by traders at that moment.

A probability is not a prediction that something will or will not happen. Over many comparable situations, candidates priced near 30% would be expected to win about three times in ten — and lose the other seven. Across all candidates in a single market, prices tend toward summing near 100%, though small gaps appear from trading spreads and fees. Treat the number as a live consensus estimate that updates with news, not as a settled fact.

The race structure: primaries, nomination, general

A US presidential race runs in stages. First, each major party holds primaries and caucuses across the states through roughly the first half of the election year. Voters and caucus-goers award delegates to candidates, mostly in proportion to or based on their support.

Next comes the nomination. Each party holds a national convention where delegates formally select the nominee. A candidate who has secured a majority of pledged delegates beforehand typically wins on the first ballot. The two parties also seat unpledged delegates, often called superdelegates; under current Democratic rules they generally cannot vote on the first ballot unless a candidate already has enough pledged delegates to win.

Finally, the general election pits the parties' nominees, plus any independent or third-party candidates, against each other nationwide. Because of this funnel, markets usually run separate contracts for party nomination and for the overall winner.

Key dates for 2028

Election Day is Tuesday, November 7, 2028, set by federal law as the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Before that, the primary and caucus calendar runs roughly from early 2028 through mid-year, though the parties were still finalizing the order of the early states as of mid-2026.

The national conventions follow in the summer of 2028. After Election Day, state electors meet in December 2028 to cast their Electoral College votes, Congress meets in joint session to count them on January 6, 2029, and the new president is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. Each of these dates can trigger sharp moves in the relevant markets.

How the winner is actually decided

The president is not chosen by national popular vote but by the Electoral College. There are 538 electoral votes: each state receives a number equal to its seats in Congress (its representatives plus two senators), and the District of Columbia receives three under the 23rd Amendment. The allocation for 2028 reflects reapportionment from the 2020 census. A candidate needs a majority — 270 electoral votes — to win.

If no candidate reaches 270, the House of Representatives chooses the president, with each state delegation casting one vote and 26 states forming a majority. This is why state-level and Electoral College markets can diverge from national popularity, and why a candidate can lead in one measure while trailing in another.

How winner markets resolve

Resolution rules define exactly when a market pays out, so traders price toward that specific condition. On Polymarket, the 2028 presidential winner market is designed to settle once major news organizations call the race for the same candidate; if no such consensus call is reached by the inauguration date, it resolves based on who is inaugurated. On Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, the comparable market verifies the outcome against the official result and settles after a person is inaugurated as president.

The practical takeaway: these markets resolve on who actually takes office, not on who leads in polls or who wins the popular vote. Always check a specific market's own rules before drawing conclusions, since wording and resolution sources vary by platform and by contract.

Why early odds are volatile

Years before an election, the field is unsettled. Candidates have not all declared, no votes have been cast, and a single announcement, withdrawal, scandal, or health event can reprice the market quickly. With little hard information, traders lean on name recognition, fundraising, and early polling, all of which shift.

Eligibility also shapes the field. Under the 22nd Amendment, no one may be elected president more than twice, which constrains who can run. Until primaries actually allocate delegates, probabilities reflect expectations rather than results, so wide swings are normal and do not by themselves signal that the market is wrong. Volatility tends to narrow as the calendar advances and real outcomes replace speculation.