Topic

Politics

The Politics stories the crowd is watching most. Crowdtells reads 14 live Politics markets on Polymarket and Kalshi as a signal of what matters, then briefs each one with real, cross-source reporting — what's moving now, and where the odds run ahead of the headlines.

• Darline Graham Nordone jumps into South Carolina Senate race

  July 31, 2026·Polymarket·Darline Graham Nordone 62%·5 sources

  Darline Graham Nordone, sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has entered the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, joining a crowded field…

• Senate control hangs in balance ahead of November elections

  July 18, 2026·Polymarket·Republican Party 56%·4 sources

  The outcome of the 2026 US Senate elections is set to determine which party will control the Senate, with the Republican Party currently favored to retain control, according to…

• Democrats eye rare midterm sweep of Congress with margins razor-thin

  July 22, 2026·Polymarket·Democrats Sweep 45%·5 sources

  Democrats are mounting an increasingly credible push to retake both chambers of Congress in the November 2026 midterms, with multiple outlets now reporting that polling margins…

• Abdul El-Sayed leads in Michigan Senate Democratic primary polls

  July 31, 2026·Kalshi·Abdul El-Sayed 98%·5 sources

  Michigan's Senate primary season is heating up, with Abdul El-Sayed leading in the latest polls. Despite his strong showing, some analysts say the nomination is far from certain,…

• Lula solidifies lead ahead of Brazil's presidential election

  July 23, 2026·Polymarket·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 67%·5 sources

  Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has extended his lead over challenger Flavio Bolsonaro in the run-up to the country's presidential election, scheduled for October 4,…

• US weighs recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukraine

  July 24, 2026·Polymarket·92% no·5 sources

  The US is considering a significant shift in its stance on the Ukraine conflict, with reports suggesting a possible recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory.…

• Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar leads Benjamin Netanyahu in new Channel 12 Knesset poll

  July 22, 2026·Polymarket·Gadi Eizenkot 49%·5 sources

  As the Israeli election nears, Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party is gaining momentum, according to a new Channel 12 Knesset poll. The poll puts Eizenkot ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu,…

• Trump Faces Marjorie Taylor Greene in Public Insult Market

  July 31, 2026·Polymarket·Tucker Carlson 100%·5 sources

  Donald Trump's history of public insults raises questions about his behavior towards Marjorie Taylor Greene, with the market's odds currently at a coin-flip. Traders put the…

• United Russia Favored to Gain Most Seats in Russian Parliamentary Election

  July 27, 2026·Polymarket·United Russia (ER) 65%·2 sources

  The Russian parliamentary election is set to take place in September 2026, with United Russia, the current ruling party, expected to maintain its dominance. The party has been in…

• Paxton and Talarico agree to debate in Texas Senate race

  July 19, 2026·Kalshi·Ken Paxton 54%·5 sources

  Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic Congressman James Talarico have agreed to debate in the U.S. Senate race for the term beginning in 2027, a fresh development that…

• McKinney challenges incumbent Thanedar in MI-13 Democratic primary

  July 31, 2026·Polymarket·Donavan McKinney 87%·5 sources

  Donavan McKinney is challenging incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar for the Democratic nomination in Michigan's 13th Congressional District, with the primary set for August 4, 2026.…

• RFK Jr. faces Hatch Act probe as 2028 GOP nomination talk persists

  July 24, 2026·Polymarket·Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%·4 sources

  A Senate Democrat has requested an investigation into whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. violated the Hatch Act, according to The Hill, adding a new legal dimension to questions about…

• Democrats forecast to retake House as midterms tighten around immigration

  July 24, 2026·Kalshi·Democratic Party 84%·5 sources

  Decision Desk HQ released its first 2026 congressional forecast nine days ago calling the House for the Democratic Party while projecting a 50-50 deadlocked Senate, a split that…

• Byron Donalds Challenges David Jolly in Florida Governor Race

  August 1, 2026·Kalshi·Byron Donalds 97%·5 sources

  Florida Republican Byron Donalds is challenging Democrat David Jolly in the 2026 governor race, with the Republican Party nomination hanging in the balance. Traders put Byron…