Commodities · Kalshi ·September 15, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Trump Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall After Midterm Elections

Former President Donald Trump has publicly stated that he expects oil prices to decrease significantly following the November 3, 2026, midterm elections. His predictions, widely reported by outlets including KCRA.com, CNBC, and ABC News, suggest that the current elevated prices, which he links to the ongoing conflict in Iran, will not subside until after the electoral cycle concludes. The specific proposition for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is whether its front-month settle price on Election Day will be above $63.99. The market's odds reflect a strong expectation for prices to remain above this level, with 99% indicating a high probability, showing little change over the past 24 hours with a +6 pts movement.

Background

Trump's comments come as global energy markets contend with geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Iran, which he identifies as a primary driver of increased oil prices. His remarks, made several days ago, have been consistent across various news reports, emphasizing a post-election shift in the energy landscape. This outlook is set against a backdrop of broader discussions about energy policy and global supply dynamics. Separately, China's carbon dioxide emissions saw a 1% decline in the second quarter of 2026, attributed to a significant drop in oil consumption, according to Carbon Brief analysis, indicating shifts in major consumer demand that could influence global prices.

The precedent

• U.S. midterm elections are held every two years, on the first Tuesday after November 1.
• The highest nominal price for WTI crude oil was recorded in July 2008, exceeding $145 per barrel.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The key date to watch is November 3, 2026, when the front-month settle price for West Texas Intermediate oil will determine whether it is above the $63.99 threshold. Any developments in the Iran conflict or shifts in global oil demand, such as further reports on China's consumption, could influence prices in the coming weeks. With the resolution date approximately 49 days away, market watchers will be scrutinizing geopolitical events and economic indicators for their potential impact.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.