Commodities · Kalshi ·September 23, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Gold Price Target After Fed Rate Hike

Gold prices are seeing renewed attention from analysts and investors after the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike, which has prompted Goldman Sachs to adjust its gold price target. Wall Street is reportedly turning bullish on gold, with the precious metal holding above $4,300 per troy ounce following post-hike gains. This shift in sentiment suggests a growing belief that gold could continue its upward trajectory, with some market participants now considering the possibility of prices reaching the 4,500 USD/t.oz threshold by the end of the year. The crowd's outlook on gold reaching 4,500 USD/t.oz by December 31, 2026, currently stands at 48%, reflecting a notable shift of -10 pts in the past 24 hours as new analyst views emerge.

Background

Gold prices have been closely tied to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate adjustments. Historically, rate hikes can put downward pressure on gold, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. However, recent market activity indicates a divergence from this traditional inverse relationship, with gold showing resilience and even gains after the latest hike. Investors are now evaluating whether this signals a new phase for gold, where it might act as a hedge against other economic uncertainties despite rising rates, with the specific question of whether it will close above 4,500 USD/t.oz by December 31, 2026, being a key point of focus.

The precedent

• Gold prices reached an all-time high of over $2,070 per troy ounce in August 2020, during a period of significant economic uncertainty and low interest rates.
• Historically, gold has often been considered a safe-haven asset, performing well during periods of inflation or economic instability.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on upcoming Federal Reserve statements and any further indications regarding future rate adjustments. Analysts will be closely monitoring economic data releases, particularly inflation figures and employment reports, which could influence the Fed's stance. The market will also watch for any shifts in investor sentiment regarding safe-haven assets as the December 31, 2026, deadline approaches, especially as the current odds for gold to hit 4,500 USD/t.oz have seen a significant -10 pts.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.