Markets · Kalshi ·August 1, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Gas Prices Could Stay Sky High into December, Expert Warns

UI energy expert Alan Jorgensen has warned that gas prices could stay high into December, citing a combination of factors including global demand, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. While some analysts have predicted a decline in oil prices, Jorgensen's warning highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the energy market. According to the market, traders currently put the probability of oil reaching $115.01 or above by the end of the year at 39%, a relatively narrow front-runner. Despite this, the reporting from multiple outlets suggests that the situation is more complex and nuanced, with various factors at play. The market has been relatively flat over the past 24 hours, with a move of -0.9 pts.

Background

The energy market has been subject to significant volatility in recent months, driven by a range of factors including global demand, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. The UI energy expert's warning highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the market, with many analysts predicting a decline in oil prices. However, the situation is more complex and nuanced, with various factors at play. The market resolves in about 152 days, and the current price level is a key milestone in the market's trajectory.

What to watch

The upcoming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of oil prices, with several key events and catalysts on the horizon. The market will be closely watching developments in global demand, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions, as well as any changes in OPEC production levels. A significant move in the market's odds over the past 24 hours, with a $23.7K in money traded, suggests that traders are actively positioning themselves for the outcome.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.