Markets Kalshi September 13, 2026
Fed Holds Firm: No Rate Cuts Expected in 2026
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Kalshi prices this Exactly 0 cuts at 92%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Global interest rates could see further increases, according to recent reports, as central banks worldwide grapple with economic pressures. This sentiment extends to the Federal Reserve, which is currently expected to implement no rate cuts throughout 2026. This outlook persists despite some mixed signals from recent economic data, such as core CPI rising 0.3% in August, although the yearly pace of 2.4% was the slowest since early 2021. The market's assessment of exactly zero cuts in 2026 stands at 92%, indicating a strong consensus among traders.
Background
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been a focal point for markets and economists, with decisions on interest rates significantly impacting the global economy. Throughout the period we have tracked it, the market's odds for rate cuts have fluctuated, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and economic growth. The specific question of whether the Fed will implement exactly zero rate cuts in 2026 has been a key point of speculation, with the market resolving on December 31, 2026.
The precedent
- The Federal Reserve last held rates steady for an entire calendar year without any cuts or hikes in 2019.
- The yearly pace of Core CPI at 2.4% is the slowest rate recorded since early 2021.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
How outlets frame it
- BBC: Emphasizes the global trend of potential interest rate increases, suggesting a broader economic environment that could influence the Fed's decisions.
- coindesk: Highlights that traders might consider the broader implications of higher rates on the economy, rather than just immediate hikes, and notes specific CPI data points.
What to watch
With the resolution date approaching in approximately 110 days, market participants will closely monitor upcoming inflation reports and any statements from Federal Reserve officials. Any significant shift in economic data or Fed rhetoric could alter expectations for rate adjustments. Traders will also be looking for further signals on how higher rates are interpreted by the economy, beyond just an expected hike.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Exactly 0 cuts at 92%.
24h -0.5 pts
$2.4M traded · $11.4K in the last day · $1.1M open interest
Resolves on: If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 92%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
Kalshi prices this Exactly 0 cuts at 92%. The reporting broadly agrees.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 1 source and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.