Markets Kalshi August 9, 2026
US Gas Prices Settle Above $4.090 Threshold
US gas prices this week
Kalshi prices this Above 4.090 at 84%.
US gas prices settled above the $4.090 threshold, with the decisive factor being a sharp increase in prices over the past week. According to various outlets, Texas and the US saw double-digit jumps in gas prices, while Indiana is likely to join states with $4 a gallon gas. The market had favored prices to remain above $4.090, but the actual outcome was above $3.960. The crowd's probability on 'Above 4.090' was 84%, but the money moved against the favorite in the last 24 hours, with the odds moving -7 pts. The market saw moderate trading, with a total of $284K dollars traded, and a significant spike in interest in the past 24 hours, with $45.3K dollars traded.
Background
Over the period, the market's odds have swung back and forth, with various outlets reporting on the fluctuations in gas prices. EnergyNow.com reported on the sixth straight week of declining gas prices, while The Atlantic cautioned motorists to get used to high gas prices.
What the coverage agrees on
- US gas prices rose above the $4.090 threshold.
- The increase was due to a sharp rise in prices over the past week.
- Texas and the US saw double-digit jumps in gas prices.
- Indiana is likely to join states with $4 a gallon gas.
How outlets frame it
- The Atlantic: Motorists should get used to high gas prices, and businesses should be prepared for increased costs.
- EnergyNow.com: The sixth straight week of declining gas prices may be a temporary reprieve for motorists.
What to watch
The aftermath of this result will be closely watched, as it may lead to increased costs for businesses and consumers, and potentially influence economic decisions.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Above 4.090 at 84%.
24h -7.0 pts
$284K traded · $45.3K in the last day · $162K open interest
Resolves on: If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.090 on Aug 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 84%
Sources
- US Gasoline Prices Tumble for Sixth Straight Week - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events energynow.com
- Texas and U.S. gas prices jump by double digits in past week - breckenridgetexan.com
- Indiana likely to join ranks of states with $4 a gallon gas later this week wane.com
- Tracking U.S., state and county gas prices, in maps and charts. Updated daily. nbcnews.com
- Get Used to High Gas Prices theatlantic.com
Frequently asked questions
US gas prices this week
Kalshi prices this Above 4.090 at 84%.
What do the sources agree on?
US gas prices rose above the $4.090 threshold. The increase was due to a sharp rise in prices over the past week. Texas and the US saw double-digit jumps in gas prices. Indiana is likely to join states with $4 a gallon gas.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $4.090 on Aug 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.