Companies · Kalshi ·June 17, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo Crowd ahead of press

Tesla faces production shift with Model S, X ending

Tesla Inc. is ending production of its Model S and Model X vehicles in the second quarter of 2026, according to CEO Elon Musk. This move comes as the company shifts its focus to newer models, including the Cybercab, which is set to begin production in Q2. The production change could have implications for Tesla's overall production numbers for the quarter. With a history of delivering strong production numbers, Tesla's Q2 2026 production is closely watched by investors and analysts. The company delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, a miss on expectations, and built 50,000 excess vehicles. Traders put 62% on the company reporting above 420,000 total production in Q2 2026.

Market lensThe market's confidence in Tesla's Q2 production numbers appears to be at odds with some of the concerns raised by recent delivery misses and production shifts.

Background

Tesla has been expanding its product lineup and making changes to its production schedule in response to market demand and competition. The company has faced challenges in meeting production targets in the past, but has also demonstrated its ability to ramp up production quickly. The shift in production focus to newer models like Cybercab could help Tesla stay competitive in the electric vehicle market. Tesla is sitting on thousands of unsold EVs, despite an uptick in interest.

What to watch

Tesla's Q2 2026 production report is expected in about 66 days. Investors will be watching to see if the company can meet or exceed the 420,000 vehicle production threshold. The start of Cybercab production and the end of Model S and X production will be key factors in determining Tesla's quarterly production numbers.

AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.