Climate and Weather Kalshi July 12, 2026
Seattle July Rainfall: Above One Inch?
Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026?
Kalshi prices this Above 1 inch at 15%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Residents and meteorologists in Seattle are closely watching the skies as July 2026 progresses, with particular interest in whether the total rainfall at CLISEA will exceed 1 inch by the end of the month. This threshold is a key indicator for summer weather, especially after a Fourth of July period that saw abundant sunshine and temperatures in the 80s. While some forecasts earlier in the month suggested possible sprinkles, the overall trend has leaned towards drier conditions. The crowd on a prediction market puts the probability of exceeding 1 inch at 15%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty despite recent dry spells.
Background
Seattle's summer weather often features a mix of sunshine and occasional light rain, with July typically being one of the drier months. However, the exact amount of precipitation can vary significantly year to year, influencing everything from local water levels to outdoor activities. This specific focus on the 1-inch mark provides a clear metric for assessing how wet or dry the current July will ultimately be. Over the past few weeks, the market's odds on exceeding this rainfall level have fluctuated, indicating a divided outlook on the month's precipitation trends.
The precedent
- Seattle's average July precipitation, based on historical data, is typically less than 1 inch.
- July is historically the driest month of the year in Seattle.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Seattle experienced sunny and warm conditions around the Fourth of July.
- Forecasts earlier in July mentioned the possibility of light rain or sprinkles.
- The weather for the World Cup match in Seattle was described as beautiful.
How outlets frame it
- The Seattle Times: Emphasized the expected weather conditions specifically for the Fourth of July period, setting an early tone for the month's climate.
- AOL.com: Highlighted the warm and sunny conditions around the Fourth of July, reinforcing the dry start to the month.
- bolavip.com: Focused on the specific weather conditions for the USA vs Belgium World Cup match in Seattle, noting it was a beautiful day.
- FOX 13 Seattle: Provided a slightly more nuanced forecast, mentioning possible sprinkles alongside generally nice conditions for the weekend, suggesting some variability.
What to watch
With approximately 20 days remaining in July, the final precipitation tally at CLISEA will be determined by the end of the month. Upcoming weather patterns and any significant rain events will be crucial in deciding whether Seattle surpasses the 1-inch mark. Sports events, such as the Seattle Storm's upcoming games against the Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky, will continue under whatever conditions prevail, but the broader climate picture remains a key focus.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Above 1 inch at 15%.
24h +5.0 pts
$11.5K traded · $3K in the last day · $4.5K open interest
Resolves on: If the total precipitation at CLISEA in Seattle in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 15%
Sources
- What we can expect for Seattle’s Fourth of July weather seattletimes.com
- Seattle weather: Fourth of July sunshine, 80s Monday aol.com
- What is the weather and temperature in Seattle today for USA vs Belgium at 2026 World Cup? bolavip.com
- Seattle weather: Possible sprinkles Monday, nice conditions this weekend fox13seattle.com
- World Cup weather: A beautiful day in Seattle for USA’s last-16 tie with Belgium - The Athletic nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions
Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026?
Kalshi prices this Above 1 inch at 15%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Seattle experienced sunny and warm conditions around the Fourth of July. Forecasts earlier in July mentioned the possibility of light rain or sprinkles. The weather for the World Cup match in Seattle was described as beautiful.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the total precipitation at CLISEA in Seattle in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.