Climate and Weather Kalshi September 1, 2026
Global Temperatures Soar: 2026 on Track for Hottest Year
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Kalshi prices this 85% yes. The reporting broadly agrees.
Global temperatures continue their upward trend, with recent reports highlighting extreme heat events worldwide and raising the prospect that 2026 could become the hottest year on record. This follows a period of escalating heat, including what Vatican News described as the "hottest July on record globally," prompting a "climate alarm." The ongoing heat is reshaping daily life in places like Europe's hottest towns, according to Reuters. The likelihood of 2026 surpassing 2025 and 1.28 degrees Celsius in NASA's GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index is seen by many as a strong possibility, with related predictions also indicating a record-breaking August for 2026.
Background
The planet has experienced a consistent warming trend over recent decades, with scientists attributing the rise in global average temperatures to climate change. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) tracks the Land-Ocean Temperature Index, a key metric for monitoring global temperature anomalies. The proposition for this market is whether the unsmoothed GISS index for 2026 will exceed both the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, a threshold that would signify a new record. The market has seen its odds climb over the period we have tracked it, reflecting growing concern and observed temperature increases.
The precedent
- The year 2023 was confirmed by NOAA and NASA as the warmest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016.
- Global average temperatures have consistently increased by approximately 0.08 degrees Celsius per decade since 1880, with the rate of warming more than doubling since 1981.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Global temperatures are rising.
- Extreme heat events are occurring in various regions.
- July 2026 was reported as the hottest July on record globally.
How outlets frame it
- Reuters: Highlights the direct impact of climate change on daily life in specific European towns experiencing extreme heat.
- Vatican News: Emphasizes the moral and urgent call to action regarding climate change, framing the record heat as a "climate alarm."
- San Antonio Express-News: Focuses on local temperature records and forecasts, providing a regional example of the broader global warming trend.
What to watch
The final determination of whether 2026 sets a new temperature record will depend on the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value reported by NASA's GISS. This crucial data point, which will resolve the market, is expected by December 31, 2026. Ongoing temperature readings and regional heatwaves will continue to be closely monitored in the coming months as the year progresses.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this 85% yes.
24h +4.6 pts
$267K traded · $1.4K in the last day · $98.8K open interest
Resolves on: If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 85%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Kalshi prices this 85% yes. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Global temperatures are rising. Extreme heat events are occurring in various regions. July 2026 was reported as the hottest July on record globally.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 3 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.