Climate and Weather Kalshi September 28, 2026
US Summer Smashes Heat Records, Eyes Hottest Year
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Kalshi prices this 72% yes. The reporting broadly agrees.
The summer of 2026 shattered heat records across the United States, with multiple outlets confirming it was the hottest on record for the nation. Colorado, in particular, endured its most sweltering summer ever, according to KUNC News. This follows a trend of increasing global temperatures, prompting close observation of whether 2026 will ultimately surpass 2025 and reach 1.28 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record. Despite the significant US heat, the crowd's probability for 2026 to be the hottest year stands at 72%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about global averages.
Background
Global temperature records are tracked by institutions like NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which reports the Land-Ocean Temperature Index. This index measures the combined average global surface temperature anomaly. The specific threshold for 2026 to be declared the hottest year ever is set at 1.28 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, in addition to exceeding the 2025 value. The market's odds have fluctuated as new temperature data emerges throughout the year, reflecting the dynamic nature of climate patterns and the influence of phenomena like El Niño or La Niña.
The precedent
- 2023 was confirmed by NOAA and NASA to be the warmest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016.
- The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 2010.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The summer of 2026 was the hottest on record for the United States.
- Colorado experienced its hottest summer ever.
- NOAA confirmed the record-breaking US summer temperatures.
What to watch
Attention will now turn to the remaining months of 2026, particularly how September's global temperatures rank in historical data, as highlighted by FOX Weather. The final determination for 2026's temperature will come with the official reporting of the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value by NASA GISS, which will resolve this question by December 31, 2026. Any significant shifts in global weather patterns in the coming months could influence the final outcome.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this 72% yes.
24h +5.1 pts
$262K traded · $676 in the last day · $83.1K open interest
Resolves on: If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 72%
Sources
- Colorado's sweltering summer was the hottest ever kunc.org
- Hottest summer ever? US breaks longstanding record stltoday.com
- NOAA Says U.S. Just Wrapped Up Its Hottest Summer On Record theinertia.com
- Another Miserably Hot Summer Is Nearly Over. NOAA Says It’s the Worst on Record cnet.com
- After the hottest summer on record, where will September rank in the history books? foxweather.com
Frequently asked questions
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Kalshi prices this 72% yes. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The summer of 2026 was the hottest on record for the United States. Colorado experienced its hottest summer ever. NOAA confirmed the record-breaking US summer temperatures.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.