Climate and Weather · Kalshi ·September 26, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Hurricane Nolo Threatens Hawaii with Catastrophic Flooding

Hurricane Nolo is currently strengthening as it tracks toward Hawaii, with forecasters warning of "catastrophic and life-threatening" flooding, particularly on the Big Island. The storm, which has been described as zig-zagging, is expected to dump significant rainfall, potentially up to three feet in some areas. A hurricane watch is in effect for Hawaii County, indicating that hurricane conditions, including maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, are possible. While the storm is a Category 2, the primary concern remains the severe flooding it could unleash, even as traders put the probability of Nolo reaching Category 1 or above at 99%.

Background

The Hawaiian Islands are bracing for the impact of Hurricane Nolo, a storm that has been steadily gaining strength and causing alarm among residents and officials. This event follows a period of increasing intensity, with Nolo now classified as a Category 2 hurricane. The specific concern for the prediction market is whether Nolo will reach sustained winds of 74 mph, classifying it as a Category 1 hurricane or higher. The market has seen a rise in its odds over the tracking period, reflecting growing concerns about the storm's potential impact on the region as it approaches its December 1 resolution date.

The precedent

• Hurricane Lane in 2018 brought over 50 inches of rain to parts of Hawaii, causing widespread flooding and landslides, despite not making a direct landfall as a major hurricane.
• Hawaii is rarely hit directly by major hurricanes, though tropical storms and their associated rainfall are more common.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

Residents of Hawaii's Big Island are under a hurricane watch, with the most immediate concern being the onset of heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding. Forecasters will closely monitor Nolo's exact path and any further intensification or weakening as it nears the islands. The storm is expected to begin a slow weakening trend by the weekend, but the threat of significant rainfall and high winds remains paramount.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.