Climate and Weather · Kalshi ·September 13, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

Atlantic hurricane season sees record delay

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has reached a new record for the latest first hurricane, with no major storms forming in the Atlantic basin as of mid-September. This unusual quiet period is largely attributed to the influence of a strong El Niño phenomenon, which typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Forecasters and meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation as the season approaches its traditional peak, with many outlets highlighting the historic nature of the delay. The market, which resolves on whether there will be above zero major Atlantic hurricanes, currently places the probability of this outcome at 40%.

Background

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. A 'major hurricane' is defined as a Category 3 or higher storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The NOAA's National Hurricane Center is the official arbiter for these classifications. This year's season has been notable for its lack of activity, contrasting with some recent years that have seen early and intense storm development. The market proposition specifically asks if there will be more than zero major hurricanes by December 1, 2026. Over the period it has been tracked, the market's odds for 'Above 0' have slipped, reflecting the observed calm.

The precedent

• The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
• A major hurricane is defined as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The Atlantic hurricane season continues until November 30, with the market resolving on December 1, 2026, based on NOAA's final count of major hurricanes. The persistence of the El Niño pattern will be a key factor determining whether any significant hurricane activity develops in the remaining weeks. Any shift in atmospheric conditions that could allow for storm formation would be closely watched by meteorologists and could impact the probability of reaching above zero major hurricanes.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.