Climate and Weather Kalshi July 25, 2026 Crowd ahead of press
Hurricane Fausto Strengthens to Category 2, Approaches Hawaiian Islands
Hurricane Fausto category?
Kalshi prices this Category 1 or above at 99%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
Hurricane Fausto has strengthened to a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Traders put the crowd's probability of Fausto reaching Category 1 or above at 99%, even though the reporting suggests it's expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands next week. The storm's strengthening is a significant development, with residents preparing for potential landfall and strong winds.
Background
Fausto formed in the Pacific Ocean and has been steadily gaining strength. The National Hurricane Center has issued warnings for the Hawaiian Islands, with residents advised to prepare for potential landfall. The storm's category is determined by its maximum sustained winds, with Category 1 being 74 mph or higher.
The precedent
- The National Hurricane Center has issued warnings for the Hawaiian Islands in response to 5 hurricanes since 2010.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Hurricane Fausto has strengthened to a Category 2 storm.
- The storm is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands next week.
- Residents in the Hawaiian Islands should prepare for potential landfall and strong winds.
How outlets frame it
- ABC News: Emphasizes the storm's potential impact on the Hawaiian Islands and the importance of resident preparation.
- Maui Now: Provides additional information on the storm's strengthening and its expected path.
What to watch
Residents in the Hawaiian Islands should prepare for potential landfall and strong winds. The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the storm's progress and issue updates as necessary.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Category 1 or above at 99%.
24h 0.0 pts
$48.1K traded · $10.5K in the last day · $18.2K open interest
Resolves on: If Fausto reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 74 mph according to the NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 99%
Sources
- Hurricane Fausto strengthens into Category 2 storm, expected to approach Hawaiian Islands next week - ABC News abcnews.com
- Additional strengthening forecast for Category 1 Hurricane Fausto mauinow.com
- Tropical Storm Genevieve forms in the Pacific Ocean as Hurricane Fausto strengthens to Category 2 apnews.com
- Hurricane Fausto continues spiraling toward Hawaii westhawaiitoday.com
- Maps: Tracking Hurricane Fausto nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions
Hurricane Fausto category?
Kalshi prices this Category 1 or above at 99%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
What do the sources agree on?
Hurricane Fausto has strengthened to a Category 2 storm. The storm is expected to approach the Hawaiian Islands next week. Residents in the Hawaiian Islands should prepare for potential landfall and strong winds.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If Fausto reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 74 mph according to the NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.