Climate and Weather Kalshi June 19, 2026
San Francisco Hits 72–73°F on June 18, 2026
Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 18, 2026?
Kalshi prices this 72° to 73° at 99%.
San Francisco's maximum temperature on June 18, 2026, settled at 72–73°F, as verified by the National Weather Service. The crowd overwhelmingly favored this range, with 99% odds reflecting strong confidence. Forecasters had highlighted a narrow window of warming ahead of a late-week cool front, which delayed but did not prevent the temperature from reaching the predicted threshold. The market's sharp 24-hour odds shift of +80 pts underscored final-day clarity in projections.
What the coverage agrees on
- The temperature fell within 72–73°F per NWS data
- The market’s top forecast matched the actual outcome
- Forecasters identified a warming window before a cool front arrived
What to watch
The result reinforces the utility of prediction markets in tracking localized climate trends, though San Francisco’s typically moderate June temperatures limited the volatility of this forecast.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this 72° to 73° at 99%.
24h +80.0 pts
$15.3K traded · $14.1K in the last day · $10.9K open interest
Resolves on: If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jun 18, 2026, is between 72-73° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 99%
Sources
- Thursday afternoon First Alert Weather forecast 6/18/26 cbsnews.com
- Today's forecast nbcmiami.com
- World Cup 2026 weather updates: Severe storms, heat test fans and venues across host cities accuweather.com
- Martinez Lake, Arizona, records hottest March day in U.S. history fox10phoenix.com
- Downtown San Francisco records coldest daytime high for November 30 since 1922 - The Watchers watchers.news
- The worst of California’s heat wave is still ahead. Here’s when temperatures will peak sfchronicle.com
- World Cup 2026 Weather Guide by Host City sofascore.com
- Why Is California So Chilly This Summer? nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions
Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 18, 2026?
Kalshi prices this 72° to 73° at 99%.
What do the sources agree on?
The temperature fell within 72–73°F per NWS data The market’s top forecast matched the actual outcome Forecasters identified a warming window before a cool front arrived
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jun 18, 2026, is between 72-73° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.