Markets Polymarket August 18, 2026
US annual inflation cooled to 3.4% in July
July Inflation US - Annual
Polymarket prices this 3.4% at 100%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate cooled to 3.4% in July, as expected, with a 0.1% rise in prices for the month. The decisive factor was the easing of gas prices, which contributed to the slowdown in inflation. The market had favored a 3.4% annual rate, and the odds had climbed to reflect this, with the crowd remaining confident in the favorite. The moderate trading volume and sharp moves in the odds over the past week and 24 hours suggest that the market was closely watching this outcome.
Background
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index report each month, which tracks the changes in prices for a basket of goods and services. The report is a key indicator of inflation, and its release can have significant impacts on financial markets. Over the period we tracked it, the market's odds had climbed, reflecting the growing expectation that the annual rate would ease.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Consumer Price Index annual rate cooled to 3.4% in July.
- The decisive factor was the easing of gas prices.
- The market had favored a 3.4% annual rate.
- The odds had climbed to reflect the growing expectation of a 3.4% annual rate.
How outlets frame it
- CNN: The easing of gas prices was a welcome relief for consumers, who had been feeling the pinch of high fuel prices.
- cnbc.com: The moderation in inflation was expected, and the July report was in line with market expectations.
What to watch
The July inflation report sets the stage for the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions, with a continued slowdown in inflation likely to support interest rate cuts.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 3.4% at 100%.
24h +61.5 pts 7d +54.5 pts
$649K traded · $146K in the last day · $29.3K resting liquidity · $143K open interest
Resolves on: This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Consumer Price Index, Midwest region — July 2026 bls.gov
- US annual inflation cooled to 3.4% in July as gas prices ease | CNN Business cnn.com
- Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, as expected, putting the annual rate at 3.4% cnbc.com
- July CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.4% Annual Rate morningstar.com
- CPI report shows inflation eased in July to a 3.4% annual pace cbsnews.com
Frequently asked questions
July Inflation US - Annual
Polymarket prices this 3.4% at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
The Consumer Price Index annual rate cooled to 3.4% in July. The decisive factor was the easing of gas prices. The market had favored a 3.4% annual rate. The odds had climbed to reflect the growing expectation of a 3.4% annual rate.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.