Commodities Polymarket August 24, 2026
US Announces Endgame Move Against Iran
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
Polymarket prices this August 31 at 3%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The United States federal government is expected to reissue sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales by August 31, a move that could have significant implications for global oil markets. While some traders believe the US will follow through on this relief, recent coverage suggests that Washington aims to sever every economic lifeline that sustains Iran. The market's current odds of 0.43 reflect a moderate level of confidence in the US taking action, but the actual reporting paints a more nuanced picture.
Background
The US previously revoked a sanctions waiver, 'General License X,' which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil. The move was seen as a significant escalation of the US's sanctions campaign against Iran. The current situation has been unfolding over the past few days, with the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Washington aims to 'sever every economic lifeline' that sustains Iran.
The precedent
- The US has previously revoked a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales, which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil.
- The US has been escalating its sanctions campaign against Iran in recent months.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What to watch
The upcoming days will be crucial in determining the US's next move on Iranian oil sales. A decision by the US to reissue sanctions relief would have significant implications for global oil markets and could lead to increased tensions with Iran.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this August 31 at 3%.
24h -0.9 pts 7d -9.4 pts
$274K traded · $23.5K in the last day · $42.4K resting liquidity · $53K open interest
Resolves on: On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US…
Pricing Polymarket 3%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
Polymarket prices this August 31 at 3%. The reporting broadly agrees.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 1 source and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.