Iran Polymarket June 16, 2026
US and Iran Sign Agreement
US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
Polymarket prices this June 15 at 100%. The reporting broadly agrees.
With the crowd putting 100% probability on a deal by June 15, the United States and Iran have reportedly signed a preliminary agreement, although its terms remain unclear. The deal aims to end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This development comes after intense negotiations, and the market has seen $19M in trading. The agreement is expected to be formally signed soon.
Market lensThe crowd's money has moved in line with the press reports of a deal, with $19M indicating active trading.
What the coverage agrees on
- The US and Iran have signed a preliminary agreement
- The agreement aims to end the Middle East war
- The Strait of Hormuz is expected to be reopened
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this June 15 at 100%.
24h 0.0 pts
$19M traded · $8.8M in the last day · $393K resting liquidity · $11.5M open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representa
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Trump may release US-Iran deal before Friday, Vance says bbc.com
- June 15, 2026 — Trump and Vance virtually sign US-Iran agreement cnn.com
- Trump declares US-Iran peace deal ‘all signed’ as G7 leaders battle to tie up loose ends theguardian.com
- U.S. and Iran Sign Preliminary Deal, but Its Terms Remain Secret nytimes.com
- U.S. and Iran reach deal to end the Mideast war, with agreement set to be signed Friday cnbc.com
- US and Iran sign ceasefire agreement, details remain unclear reuters.com
- U.S. and Iran announce an initial deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz npr.org
- U.S., Iran expected to "electronically" sign agreement to end war Sunday axios.com
Frequently asked questions
US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
Polymarket prices this June 15 at 100%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The US and Iran have signed a preliminary agreement The agreement aims to end the Middle East war The Strait of Hormuz is expected to be reopened
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representa
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.