Geopolitics Polymarket August 18, 2026
Netanyahu Insists Israel Won't Withdraw from Gaza Until Hamas Disarms
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Polymarket prices this December 31, 2026 at 23%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US envoy Jared Kushner have agreed on a plan for Hamas disarmament, but Hamas has yet to commit to the process. The market's current favorite, December 31, 2026, reflects the uncertainty surrounding Hamas's intentions, with traders putting 23% on the date, even though the reporting suggests that Netanyahu and Kushner's agreement is a significant step towards disarmament. Over the past 24 hours, the odds have moved -2 pts, indicating a sharp shift in traders' confidence.
Background
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has been ongoing for years, with both sides refusing to back down. The recent agreement between Netanyahu and Kushner is seen as a significant development in the peace process, but Hamas's willingness to disarm remains a major concern. The market's resolve date, December 31, 2026, is a key milestone in this process, and its outcome will have significant implications for the region.
The precedent
- The last time Hamas agreed to disarm was in 2014, but the process was eventually abandoned.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The conflict between Israel and Hamas has been ongoing for years.
- The recent agreement between Netanyahu and Kushner is seen as a significant development in the peace process.
- Hamas's willingness to disarm remains a major concern.
How outlets frame it
- france24: france24 emphasizes the significance of the agreement between Netanyahu and Kushner, highlighting its potential to bring about a lasting peace.
- Fox News: Fox News focuses on the warning given by Kushner to Hamas, emphasizing the need for disarmament within a specific timeframe.
- European Council on Foreign Relations: The European Council on Foreign Relations argues that Hamas's disarmament is crucial for achieving peace, and that Israel should now agree to peace talks.
What to watch
The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining Hamas's intentions, with the deadline for disarmament looming. If Hamas fails to commit to the process, it could lead to further conflict and instability in the region.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this December 31, 2026 at 23%.
24h -2.0 pts 7d +2.0 pts
$3.7M traded · $36.9K in the last day · $51.1K resting liquidity · $276K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify.…
Pricing Polymarket 23%
Sources
- Hamas has agreed to disarm. Israel should now agree to peace ecfr.eu
- Hamas Agreed to Disarm. Why Did Israel Reject the Deal? foreignpolicy.com
- Netanyahu says Israel ‘didn’t agree’ to Board of Peace’s terms for disarming Hamas timesofisrael.com
- Inside Kushner's Hamas meeting: What comes next in Gaza axios.com
- Netanyahu rejects Trump's Gaza Peace Plan, demands Hamas disarm first npr.org
Frequently asked questions
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Polymarket prices this December 31, 2026 at 23%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has been ongoing for years. The recent agreement between Netanyahu and Kushner is seen as a significant development in the peace process. Hamas's willingness to disarm remains a major concern.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify.…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.