Politics Polymarket August 11, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic fails to return to normal by July 31 deadline
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Polymarket prices this 98% no.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic did not return to normal by July 31. Despite a summit by the Brics grouping of nations and talks between Iran and Oman, the waterway remained closed. Neither the US nor Oman commented on a proposed agreement on shipping routes in the Strait. The decisive factor was the lack of progress in resolving the crisis. The market had expected this outcome, with odds of 98% favoring 'No'. The odds had moved +5.1 pts over the past week and +0.5 pts in the past 24 hours, with a total of $16.3M dollars traded on the market. The recent surge in dark AIS activity and the failure of the proposed agreement to fully reopen the waterway contributed to the failure to meet the deadline.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil shipments, and its closure has significant economic implications. The crisis began in May, with the US imposing sanctions on Iran. The Brics summit next month aims to rally member states to resolve the crisis, but progress has been slow. The proposed agreement between Iran and Oman was seen as a potential breakthrough, but it ultimately failed to meet the deadline.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Strait of Hormuz traffic did not return to normal by July 31.
- Neither the US nor Oman commented on a proposed agreement on shipping routes in the Strait.
- The recent surge in dark AIS activity contributed to the failure to meet the deadline.
How outlets frame it
- The New York Times: The proposed agreement between Iran and Oman was seen as a potential breakthrough, but it ultimately failed to meet the deadline.
- BBC: Neither the US nor Oman commented on the proposed agreement on shipping routes in the Strait, which suggests a lack of progress in resolving the crisis.
- foreignpolicyjournal.com: The recent surge in dark AIS activity and the failure of the proposed agreement to fully reopen the waterway contributed to the failure to meet the deadline.
What to watch
The failure to return to normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has significant economic implications for global oil shipments. The US and its allies will likely continue to pressure Iran to reopen the waterway, while Iran will likely continue to resist. The situation remains volatile, and any further escalation could have severe consequences for global oil markets.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 98% no.
24h +0.5 pts 7d +5.1 pts
$16.3M traded · $275K in the last day · $843K resting liquidity · $3M open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has…
Pricing Polymarket 98%
Sources
- Strait of Hormuz Traffic: When Will It Return To Normal? actionnetwork.com
- Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy energynow.com
- Odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal pop as Trump halts strikes seekingalpha.com
- Strait of Hormuz Normalization Odds Decline As Trump Demands Compensation From Iran: Here’s What Predicti benzinga.com
- Strait of Hormuz Crossings Rise 8% Week-on-Week, But Dark AIS Activity Remains Elevated foreignpolicyjournal.com
Frequently asked questions
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Polymarket prices this 98% no.
What do the sources agree on?
The Strait of Hormuz traffic did not return to normal by July 31. Neither the US nor Oman commented on a proposed agreement on shipping routes in the Strait. The recent surge in dark AIS activity contributed to the failure to meet the deadline.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.