Strait of Hormuz Polymarket June 18, 2026
US and Iran sign pact to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Polymarket prices this 54% yes. The reporting broadly agrees.
The United States and Iran announced on Saturday that their presidents have signed an Islamabad memorandum aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normal commercial shipping. The agreement, hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough, could revive the flow of container and bulk vessels that have been reduced since heightened tensions escalated last year. Analysts note that a swift return to pre‑crisis traffic would relieve pressure on global oil markets and support regional trade. Traders have priced the outcome at 54%, reflecting a near‑even split on whether the pact will translate into measurable traffic gains.
Market lensThe market’s +27 pts shift toward a higher probability aligns with the surge in positive press following the memorandum’s announcement.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s petroleum shipments. Past disruptions—most notably during the Iran‑Iraq war and a 2019 series of tanker attacks—prompted sharp spikes in oil prices and heightened naval patrols. The new memorandum follows months of back‑channel talks and comes amid broader U.S. efforts to de‑escalate sanctions on Iran. Earlier this week, former President Trump warned of seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, underscoring lingering political frictions despite the diplomatic overture.
The precedent
- The Strait of Hormuz was partially blocked during the 1980s Iran‑Iraq war, causing global oil price spikes
- In 2019, attacks on tankers in the strait led to a temporary reduction in vessel traffic and a surge in oil prices
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The United States and Iran have signed an Islamabad memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The agreement is expected to ease oil market pressures.
Where sources diverge
- Former President Trump’s vow to seize Iran’s Kharg Island conflicts with the narrative of a cooperative reopening agreement, as highlighted by scanx.trade versus Crypto Briefing.
How outlets frame it
- Crypto Briefing: Frames the memorandum as a concrete step toward normalizing maritime traffic and reducing regional tensions.
- scanx.trade: Emphasizes Trump’s threat to seize Kharg Island, portraying the situation as still volatile despite diplomatic talks.
- blockchain.news: Focuses on the immediate impact on oil prices, noting a slide driven by market hopes of renewed flow through the strait.
What to watch
Watch the IMF Portwatch 7‑day moving average of Strait of Hormuz arrivals for any reading at or above 60 before July 31, 2026, as the primary gauge of traffic normalization. Oil price movements and any further statements from U.S. or Iranian officials will also signal the pact’s implementation progress.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 54% yes.
24h -3.0 pts 7d +27.0 pts
$6.2M traded · $157K in the last day · $202K resting liquidity · $1.3M open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk,
Pricing Polymarket 54% Kalshi 50%
Sources
- Will Ships Be Able To Sail Normally Through Strait Of Hormuz After Trump's Iran MOU? Here's What The Pred benzinga.com
- US, Iran presidents sign Islamabad memorandum to reopen Strait of Hormuz cryptobriefing.com
- Trump vows to seize Kharg Island as oil prices surge scanx.trade
- Iran - Probability of Hormuz Traffic Returning to Normal (Polymarket Betting Odds) en.macromicro.me
- Oil slides on U.S.-Iran peace hopes as Polymarket dips to 56.5% on Hormuz blockchain.news
Frequently asked questions
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Polymarket prices this 54% yes. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The United States and Iran have signed an Islamabad memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement is expected to ease oil market pressures.
Where do the sources disagree?
Former President Trump’s vow to seize Iran’s Kharg Island conflicts with the narrative of a cooperative reopening agreement, as highlighted by scanx.trade versus Crypto Briefing.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk,
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.