Politics Polymarket July 22, 2026
Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar leads Benjamin Netanyahu in new Channel 12 Knesset poll
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket prices this Gadi Eizenkot at 49%. The reporting broadly agrees.
As the Israeli election nears, Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party is gaining momentum, according to a new Channel 12 Knesset poll. The poll puts Eizenkot ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu, the current prime minister, in a potential showdown. While traders put Eizenkot at roughly a coin-flip (49%), the reporting suggests a more complex picture. Eizenkot's party has been gaining ground, but Netanyahu still maintains a strong base of support. The election will be held on October 27, with the outcome hanging in the balance. With the stakes high, the question remains: can Eizenkot's Yashar party overcome Netanyahu's entrenched support and emerge victorious?
Background
The Israeli election is a highly contested and complex event, with multiple parties and candidates vying for power. The current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been in office for several years and has a strong base of support. However, Eizenkot's Yashar party has been gaining ground in recent weeks, with some polls suggesting a close contest. The election will be held on October 27, with the outcome hanging in the balance.
The precedent
- No sitting prime minister has lost a re-election bid since 1977
- The Israeli election is highly contested and complex, with multiple parties and candidates vying for power
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Israeli election will be held on October 27.
- Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party is a strong contender in the election.
- Benjamin Netanyahu is the current prime minister of Israel.
Where sources diverge
- The level of support for Eizenkot's Yashar party versus Netanyahu's Likud party remains a point of contention among analysts.
- Some polls suggest a close contest between the two parties, while others show a more significant gap.
How outlets frame it
- The Jerusalem Post: The Jerusalem Post emphasizes the growing momentum of Eizenkot's Yashar party, highlighting its potential to upset Netanyahu's entrenched support.
- Al-Monitor: Al-Monitor notes the complexity of the Israeli election, emphasizing the multiple parties and candidates vying for power.
- Time Magazine: Time Magazine focuses on the personal dynamics between Netanyahu and Eizenkot, highlighting their differing leadership styles and policy priorities.
What to watch
The next development in the Israeli election will be crucial, with the outcome hanging in the balance. The election will be held on October 27, and the question remains: can Eizenkot's Yashar party overcome Netanyahu's entrenched support and emerge victorious?
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Gadi Eizenkot at 49%.
24h -3.2 pts 7d -5.2 pts
$30.7M traded · $155K in the last day · $2.3M resting liquidity · $797K open interest
Resolves on: Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this…
Pricing Polymarket 49%
Sources
- Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar leads Benjamin Netanyahu in new Channel 12 Knesset poll jpost.com
- New Israeli election poll puts Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu: What to know - Al-Monitor al-monitor.com
- Will Israel Elect Netanyahu Again? time.com
- Israel to hold elections October 27 as Netanyahu seeks another run scmp.com
- Netanyahu government defies court, raising constitutional crisis fears as election nears pbs.org
Frequently asked questions
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket prices this Gadi Eizenkot at 49%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The Israeli election will be held on October 27. Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party is a strong contender in the election. Benjamin Netanyahu is the current prime minister of Israel.
Where do the sources disagree?
The level of support for Eizenkot's Yashar party versus Netanyahu's Likud party remains a point of contention among analysts. Some polls suggest a close contest between the two parties, while others show a more significant gap.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.