Geopolitics Polymarket June 18, 2026
US and Iran reach deal to end military hostilities
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Polymarket prices this June 30 at 100%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The United States and Iran have reached a deal to end military hostilities, with an agreement set to be signed on Friday, according to multiple reports. The deal would explicitly indicate that military hostilities between the two countries have ended. This development comes after a period of heightened tensions between the two nations. The agreement would mark a significant shift in relations, with the potential to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders put 100% on the deal happening by June 30.
Background
The United States and Iran have been engaged in a longstanding conflict, with tensions escalating in recent years. The two countries have had a complex relationship, with periods of relative calm punctuated by outbreaks of violence. A permanent peace deal would be a significant development, with implications for regional stability. The market resolves in about 196 days, giving both sides time to work out the details.
What the coverage agrees on
- The US and Iran have reached a deal
- The agreement is set to be signed on Friday
- The deal would end military hostilities
What to watch
The agreement is set to be signed on Friday, so the focus will be on the details of the deal and how it will be implemented. Any developments that could impact the signing or the terms of the agreement will be closely watched.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this June 30 at 100%.
24h +0.3 pts 7d +84.5 pts
$479M traded · $112M in the last day · $9.7M resting liquidity · $109M open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have e
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- U.S. and Iran reach deal to end the Mideast war, with agreement set to be signed Friday cnbc.com
- US, Iran to sign a ‘peace deal’ on Friday: What we know aljazeera.com
- US and Iran agree deal to end war as Trump says Strait of Hormuz to reopen bbc.com
- Polymarket Bets on Iran Deal Fuel Fresh Insider-Trading Fears bloomberg.com
- Iran and U.S. reach deal, Trump and Pakistani prime minister say, as Israeli strikes in Lebanon threaten agreement cbsnews.com
- Trump Says U.S. Will Hit Iran ‘VERY HARD TONIGHT’ forbes.com
- U.S. and Iran reach framework deal to end war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz nbcnews.com
- US-Iran peace deal announced with ‘permanent’ end to military action english.alarabiya.net
Frequently asked questions
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Polymarket prices this June 30 at 100%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The US and Iran have reached a deal The agreement is set to be signed on Friday The deal would end military hostilities
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have e
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.