Iran Polymarket June 16, 2026 Crowd ahead of press
US and Iran reach deal to end military hostilities
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Polymarket prices this June 30 at 100%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
With 100% odds of a permanent peace deal by December 31, the US and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement to end military hostilities. According to multiple outlets, a deal is set to be signed on Friday. The agreement would mark a significant shift in relations between the two countries, which have been at odds for decades. The deal's impact on the region and global stability will be closely watched. +86.5 pts suggests growing confidence in the deal, with $474M money traded on this market.
Market lensThe crowd's confidence in a peace deal by December 31 appears to be growing, despite some outlets casting doubt on the agreement's durability.
What the coverage agrees on
- The US and Iran have reached a deal to end military hostilities.
- The agreement is set to be signed on Friday.
- The deal aims to permanently end military action between the two countries.
Where sources diverge
- The exact terms and conditions of the agreement.
- The level of involvement from other countries, such as Pakistan and Israel.
- The potential impact on the Strait of Hormuz.
How outlets frame it
- Forbes: Reports a starkly different view from Trump, indicating potential ongoing tensions.
- CBS News: Mentions Israeli strikes in Lebanon threatening the agreement, highlighting potential external challenges.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this June 30 at 100%.
24h +0.4 pts 7d +86.5 pts
$474M traded · $110M in the last day · $17.6M resting liquidity · $107M open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have e
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- U.S. and Iran reach deal to end the Mideast war, with agreement set to be signed Friday cnbc.com
- US, Iran to sign a ‘peace deal’ on Friday: What we know aljazeera.com
- US and Iran agree deal to end war as Trump says Strait of Hormuz to reopen bbc.com
- Iran and U.S. reach deal, Trump and Pakistani prime minister say, as Israeli strikes in Lebanon threaten agreement cbsnews.com
- US-Iran peace deal announced with 'permanent' end to military action - ABS-CBN abs-cbn.com
- Trump Says U.S. Will Hit Iran ‘VERY HARD TONIGHT’ forbes.com
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by…? cryptoslate.com
- U.S. and Iran reach framework deal to end war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz nbcnews.com
Frequently asked questions
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Polymarket prices this June 30 at 100%. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
What do the sources agree on?
The US and Iran have reached a deal to end military hostilities. The agreement is set to be signed on Friday. The deal aims to permanently end military action between the two countries.
Where do the sources disagree?
The exact terms and conditions of the agreement. The level of involvement from other countries, such as Pakistan and Israel. The potential impact on the Strait of Hormuz.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have e
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.