Topic

Elections

Crowdtells tracks 3 live Elections markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, ranked by how much money is behind them and how fast they're moving. Below: what the crowd is pricing right now, the latest swings, and where the odds run ahead of the headlines.

• Jordan Bardella Emerges as Front-Runner in 2027 French Election Race

  June 16, 2026·Polymarket·Jordan Bardella 26%·8 sources

  The market now assigns a 26% probability to Jordan Bardella, RN’s young leader, winning France’s 2027 election—a sharp rise from -2 pts over seven days. Bardella’s surge reflects…

• Peru election deadlocked

  June 17, 2026·Polymarket·Fujimori 0.2–0.3% 95%·2 sources

  With the crowd putting 95% probability on a narrow Fujimori win, Peru's presidential election hangs in the balance. The essential background is that the election is now in its…

• Trump's Third-Term Ambitions Spark Legal and Constitutional Debate

  June 17, 2026·Kalshi·93% no·8 sources

  The market assigns a 93% probability that Trump will not run for a third term, reflecting confidence in the 22nd Amendment’s durability. Yet coverage reveals legal ambiguity:…