Topic
Elections
Crowdtells tracks 3 live Elections markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, ranked by how much money is behind them and how fast they're moving. Below: what the crowd is pricing right now, the latest swings, and where the odds run ahead of the headlines.
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Jordan Bardella Emerges as Front-Runner in 2027 French Election Race
The market now assigns a 26% probability to Jordan Bardella, RN’s young leader, winning France’s 2027 election—a sharp rise from -2 pts over seven days. Bardella’s surge reflects…
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Peru election deadlocked
With the crowd putting 95% probability on a narrow Fujimori win, Peru's presidential election hangs in the balance. The essential background is that the election is now in its…
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Trump's Third-Term Ambitions Spark Legal and Constitutional Debate
The market assigns a 93% probability that Trump will not run for a third term, reflecting confidence in the 22nd Amendment’s durability. Yet coverage reveals legal ambiguity:…