Politics Kalshi June 18, 2026
US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding full text release imminent
When will the full text of the US-Iran MoU be officially released?
Kalshi prices this Before Jun 19, 2026 at 99%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The US and Iran have reached a memorandum of understanding, with several outlets releasing or reporting on its full text. The agreement includes 14 points and covers issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon. According to Axios, the full text has been obtained, while the BBC and CNN have also reported on its contents. The New York Times notes that the agreement includes several key points, including a commitment from Iran to reduce its nuclear activities. Traders put 99% on the text being officially released before June 19, 2026, reflecting a high level of confidence in this outcome, even though some details remain unclear.
Market lensThe market's odds of 99% imply a high level of confidence in the release of the full text, which aligns with the reporting from several outlets.
Background
The US and Iran have been engaged in diplomatic efforts to reach a new agreement, following the withdrawal of the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. The new memorandum of understanding aims to address several key issues, including Iran's nuclear program and regional activities. The 99% suggest that the market expects the full text to be released soon.
The precedent
- The US and Iran have previously reached agreements on nuclear issues, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The US and Iran have reached a memorandum of understanding.
- The agreement includes 14 points.
- The full text of the agreement has been reported on by several outlets.
How outlets frame it
- The New York Times: The agreement includes several key points, including a commitment from Iran to reduce its nuclear activities, but notes that the deal is not a formal treaty and may not be binding.
- Axios: The full text of the agreement has been obtained, providing a detailed look at the terms of the deal.
What to watch
The official release of the full text of the memorandum of understanding, expected to occur before June 19, 2026. If the release is delayed or does not occur, it could impact the market's confidence in the agreement.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Before Jun 19, 2026 at 99%.
24h +73.0 pts
$167K traded · $149K in the last day · $89.3K open interest
Resolves on: If the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been publicly released through official channels before Jun 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 99%
Sources
- Trump’s Iran Deal: What We Know So Far cfr.org
- READ: Full text of U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding axios.com
- US-Iran memorandum of understanding in full bbc.com
- US releases official agreement with Iran. Read the 14-point text cnn.com
- Full Text Of US-Iran MoU Read Aloud By Senior Administration Official i24news.tv
- U.S.-Iran Agreement Includes Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon and More: See Full Text of the Deal nytimes.com
- U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding: Full Text foreignpolicy.com
- Read the 14 points of the agreement between Iran and the U.S. cbsnews.com
Frequently asked questions
When will the full text of the US-Iran MoU be officially released?
Kalshi prices this Before Jun 19, 2026 at 99%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The US and Iran have reached a memorandum of understanding. The agreement includes 14 points. The full text of the agreement has been reported on by several outlets.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been publicly released through official channels before Jun 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.