Politics Kalshi June 16, 2026
Trump administration sees resignations
Will Trump resign during his term?
Kalshi prices this 74% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
With the crowd giving a 74% chance against it, President Trump's administration has seen several high-profile departures, including Tulsi Gabbard as national intelligence director, citing her husband's health, and other key officials, in a term marked by turnover, though the total money traded on this market remains $57K. The essential background is that these resignations have raised questions about the stability and continuity of the administration. What is at stake is the ability of the administration to effectively govern and implement its policies. What to watch next is how the administration will respond to these departures and whether they will have a significant impact on its operations.
Market lensThe crowd's money suggests that it is not expecting Trump to resign, despite the recent departures, which have not significantly impacted the market.
What the coverage agrees on
- Tulsi Gabbard has resigned as national intelligence director
- Several high-profile officials have left the Trump administration
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this 74% no.
24h -2.0 pts
$57K traded · $1.2K in the last day · $17.8K open interest
Resolves on: If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 74%
Sources
- Tulsi Gabbard resigns as Trump's national intelligence director pbs.org
- Tulsi Gabbard resigning as Trump's intelligence chief cnbc.com
- Tulsi Gabbard resigns as director of national intelligence, citing her husband’s health federalnewsnetwork.com
- Bondi out, Noem replaced: A running list of high-profile departures from the Trump administration yahoo.com
- US intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard leaving post after rocky tenure theguardian.com
- Resignation Letter From National Counterterrorism Center Director Joseph Kent presidency.ucsb.edu
- Everyone Who Has Left or Been Fired from Donald Trump's Second Administration So Far people.com
- Top Trump appointee on key federal election panel to resign democracydocket.com
Frequently asked questions
Will Trump resign during his term?
Kalshi prices this 74% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Tulsi Gabbard has resigned as national intelligence director Several high-profile officials have left the Trump administration
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.