Politics Kalshi June 16, 2026 Crowd ahead of press
Democrats ramp up calls as market doubts Trump impeachment
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Kalshi prices this 81% no. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
Despite a market consensus that impeachment is unlikely (81%), Democrats and legal scholars are intensifying calls to remove Trump. Lawmakers such as Congressman John Larson have filed fresh articles of impeachment and urged the 25th Amendment, while figures like Platner publicly declare removal necessary. The pressure follows Trump’s recent threats toward Iran, which prompted dozens of Democrats, including Illinois legislators, to demand action. Meanwhile, Forbes reports Trump is urging Congress to expunge his prior impeachments, a move not echoed by other outlets. The market’s light $94.1K trading underscores limited betting despite the political flare‑up. Watch for any House leadership response, a potential Senate vote, or a 25th Amendment invocation as the 2028 election cycle approaches.
Market lensThe market’s strong “No” favorite and modest trading volume contrast with the heightened political rhetoric in the press.
What the coverage agrees on
- Multiple Democrats and officials are urging Trump’s impeachment or removal
- Trump’s recent Iran threat has amplified calls for action
- The Constitution provides impeachment and the 25th Amendment as mechanisms
Where sources diverge
- Forbes claims Trump is pressuring Congress to expunge his impeachments, a claim not corroborated by other outlets
- The feasibility of invoking the 25th Amendment versus pursuing impeachment is presented as viable by Larson but not universally endorsed
How outlets frame it
- Forbes: Frames the story around Trump’s own effort to erase past impeachments, emphasizing his agency
- The Hill: Features a partisan endorsement of impeachment, highlighting a Republican’s explicit support
- The Conversation: Focuses on constitutional analysis, treating removal as a legal question rather than a political campaign
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this 81% no.
24h -2.0 pts
$94.1K traded · $323 in the last day · $39.5K open interest
Resolves on: If the President of the United States has been impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 81%
Sources
- Trump Is Pressuring Congress To Expunge His Impeachments, Report Says forbes.com
- Odds for Trump to be Impeached: Trade on Politics Prediction Markets federalnewsnetwork.com
- A month later, what's new with Trump impeachment proceedings? mindsitenews.org
- Platner: ‘Of course’ Trump needs to be impeached, removed thehill.com
- When a president is unfit for office, here’s what the Constitution says can happen theconversation.com
- Larson Files Articles of Impeachment, Calls for 25th Amendment as Trump Becomes More Unhinged larson.house.gov
- Dozens of Democrats call for Trump's removal after his Iran threats nbcnews.com
- Illinois Democrats Call for Removing Trump From Office After ‘Whole Civilization Will Die’ Threat to Iran news.wttw.com
Frequently asked questions
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Kalshi prices this 81% no. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
What do the sources agree on?
Multiple Democrats and officials are urging Trump’s impeachment or removal Trump’s recent Iran threat has amplified calls for action The Constitution provides impeachment and the 25th Amendment as mechanisms
Where do the sources disagree?
Forbes claims Trump is pressuring Congress to expunge his impeachments, a claim not corroborated by other outlets The feasibility of invoking the 25th Amendment versus pursuing impeachment is presented as viable by Larson but not universally endorsed
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the President of the United States has been impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.