Science and Technology Kalshi July 7, 2026
SpaceX Starship Prepares for 13th Test Flight
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
Kalshi prices this Before September at 94%. The reporting broadly agrees.
SpaceX is advancing preparations for its 13th Starship flight test, with recent activities at its Starbase facility indicating progress. The company successfully completed a critical engine test, igniting all six of the vehicle's engines for a full minute. This milestone is a key step as SpaceX works to meet its launch schedule, with the upcoming flight test number 13 anticipated before September 01, 2026. The market's odds currently place the probability of this launch occurring within the timeframe at 94%, reflecting a strong expectation among observers.
Background
Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable launch system designed for deep-space missions, including lunar and Martian travel. The company has been conducting a series of increasingly ambitious flight tests from its Starbase facility in Texas, refining the vehicle's design and operational procedures. Each test flight gathers crucial data for future development, pushing towards the ultimate goal of regular, cost-effective space travel. The proposition hinges on whether the 13th flight test takes place before the specified September 01, 2026 deadline.
The precedent
- SpaceX has conducted multiple Starship flight tests since 2020, with varying degrees of success.
- Starship's Raptor engines are powered by liquid methane and liquid oxygen, a design choice for future Martian missions.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- SpaceX recently conducted a successful Starship engine test.
- The engine test involved igniting all six engines for a full minute.
- SpaceX is continuing development of its Starship vehicle.
What to watch
The immediate focus will be on further ground testing and regulatory approvals for Starship flight test 13. Any additional engine tests or integrated system checks would signal continued progress. The resolution date of August 31, 2026, serves as the hard deadline for this specific launch window.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Before September at 94%.
24h +9.0 pts
$53.4K traded · $11.2K in the last day · $26.9K open interest
Resolves on: If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 94%
Sources
- Space Coast launch schedule: orlandosentinel.com
- SpaceX stock at $150 draws short bets while bond buyers step in ts2.tech
- SpaceX stock enters Nasdaq-100 today: can the IPO rally survive? invezz.com
- SpaceX At 100x Revenue: A Warning From 2000 sekbernews.id
Frequently asked questions
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
Kalshi prices this Before September at 94%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
SpaceX recently conducted a successful Starship engine test. The engine test involved igniting all six engines for a full minute. SpaceX is continuing development of its Starship vehicle.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 4 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.