Science and Technology · Kalshi ·July 21, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

SpaceX retargets Starship Flight 13 for July 23 after last-second abort

SpaceX has stacked the two stages of its Starship rocket at the Boca Chica, Texas, launch site and is now targeting Thursday, July 23, for the vehicle's 13th flight test, after an attempt on July 16 aborted at the last second when the engines failed to start. Elon Musk told Reuters a launch was probable later in the week following the scrub. The flight would be Starship's first since the program's earlier test campaign and comes as SpaceX pushes to demonstrate rapid reusability of the world's largest rocket. With the new target date set, traders put the probability of a launch before September 17 at 99%, a level that has climbed steadily as the rescheduled attempt approaches. The deadline gives SpaceX roughly eight weeks of margin beyond this week's window.

Background

Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable, two-stage launch vehicle designed for lunar and Martian missions and heavy satellite deployment. Flight 13 follows a series of increasingly ambitious test launches from the company's Starbase facility in South Texas, each intended to prove controlled reentry and landing of both the Super Heavy booster and the upper-stage spacecraft. The July 16 abort occurred at the last second before liftoff when the rocket's engines failed to ignite, a scrub SpaceX attributed to a ground-system issue rather than a vehicle problem. Musk subsequently indicated the next attempt was probable within a week. The question at issue is whether SpaceX can complete Flight 13 before September 17, 2026.

The precedent

• SpaceX has conducted Starship flight tests from its Boca Chica, Texas facility since April 2023, with each successive flight reaching greater milestones in stage separation and controlled reentry.
• Starship's first fully successful integrated flight test, achieving both booster catch and spacecraft splashdown, occurred with Flight 5 in October 2024.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The immediate marker is the July 23 launch window — whether SpaceX completes a successful liftoff or encounters another scrub. A clean ascent through stage separation and booster recovery would mark a significant step in Starship's test campaign. A second abort would narrow the margin before the September 17 deadline but would still leave weeks for additional attempts. Watch for FAA licensing updates and any hardware changes SpaceX identifies from the July 16 engine ignition failure.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.