Science and Technology Kalshi September 19, 2026
SpaceX Starship 13th launch delayed past September 17th
✗ The market missed this — resolved Before July 25th.
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
Kalshi prices this Before September 17th at 99%.
SpaceX's 13th Starship flight test did not launch before September 17, 2026, with reports confirming the company is targeting September 22nd for its next orbital attempt. This launch aims to be the first time the Starship reaches orbit. The delay past the mid-September date means the company's aggressive launch schedule has been adjusted. The prediction market had heavily favored a launch before September 17th, with 99% suggesting high confidence in an earlier liftoff, but the actual launch date proved otherwise.
Background
SpaceX has been working towards its ambitious Starship program, with each flight test representing a step in its development. The company has been consistently pushing the boundaries of rocket technology, aiming for reusability and deep-space missions. This particular launch, the 13th flight test, has been anticipated as a pivotal moment, with plans to attempt an orbital flight for the first time.
What the coverage agrees on
- SpaceX's 13th Starship launch is targeting September 22nd.
- The mission aims for Starship's first orbital flight.
- The launch will include Starlink satellites.
How outlets frame it
- Space: Focuses on the orbital ambition and the specific September 22nd date.
- Ars Technica: Highlights SpaceX's declaration of Starship's readiness for orbit and the set launch date.
- SpaceNews: Confirms the inclusion of Starlink satellites on the upcoming Starship mission.
- Reuters: Emphasizes the September 22nd target for the first Starship orbital test.
What to watch
The focus now shifts to the new September 22nd target date for Starship's orbital test. A successful orbital flight would mark a significant milestone for SpaceX, potentially accelerating its plans for future missions, including Starlink satellite deployments and crewed flights to the Moon and Mars.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Before September 17th at 99%.
24h 0.0 pts
$192K traded · $5.7K in the last day · $70.8K open interest
Resolves on: If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 99%
Sources
- SpaceX's next Starship launch will lift off on Sept. 22 and aim to reach orbit for 1st time space.com
- SpaceX declares Starship ready for orbit, sets launch date next week arstechnica.com
- SpaceX confirms plans to launch Starlink satellites on next Starship mission spacenews.com
- SpaceX targets first Starship orbital test on September 22 reuters.com
- SpaceX Eyes New Starship Launch Date. SPCX Orbits Aggressive Entry. investors.com
Frequently asked questions
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
Kalshi prices this Before September 17th at 99%.
What do the sources agree on?
SpaceX's 13th Starship launch is targeting September 22nd. The mission aims for Starship's first orbital flight. The launch will include Starlink satellites.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.