Science and Technology Polymarket September 28, 2026
El Niño Fuels Concerns for Hottest Year on Record
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket prices this 1 at 67%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Concerns are mounting that 2026 could ultimately rank as the hottest year on record, driven by the intensifying El Niño climate pattern. Recent reports indicate that England experienced one of its busiest-ever periods for ambulance services during a record-breaking June heatwave, while wildfires in Indonesia are on track to produce emissions comparable to previous record years due to El Niño's influence. This follows a summer described as the hottest on record by FOX Weather, suggesting a continuing trend of extreme temperatures. The prospect of 2026 claiming the number "1" spot among the hottest years has gained traction, with prediction markets currently reflecting 67% probability for this outcome, a notable -8.5 pts shift over the past week.
Background
The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index is the primary metric used to rank annual global temperatures, with years ordered from hottest to coolest. The current El Niño event has reached "super status," according to Al Jazeera, raising concerns about its widespread effects on weather patterns globally, including increased heat, drought, and heavy rainfall in various regions. This ongoing climatic phenomenon has historically been associated with elevated global temperatures, making its presence a significant factor in the 2026 temperature outlook. The market, which resolves in about 155 days, has seen its odds fluctuate significantly as the year progresses and climate data emerges.
The precedent
- The warmest year on record, according to NOAA, was 2023, surpassing previous records set in 2016 and 2020.
- Strong El Niño events have historically been correlated with global average temperature increases in the following year.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- An El Niño event is currently active and intensifying.
- Extreme heat events have occurred in various regions during 2026.
- Wildfires are contributing to significant emissions.
- Global temperatures are a subject of ongoing concern and monitoring.
How outlets frame it
- carbonbrief: Emphasizes the direct impact of the June 2026 heatwave on public services in England, specifically the record demand for ambulances, linking it to the broader climate trend.
What to watch
The trajectory of the current El Niño phenomenon will be a critical factor in determining 2026's final temperature ranking. Scientists will closely monitor global temperature data, particularly from the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, as the year concludes. The market will resolve on March 1, 2027, once the official data for 2026's temperature ranking becomes available, which could see further shifts in expectations if new climate anomalies emerge.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 1 at 67%.
24h +2.0 pts 7d -8.5 pts
$3.6M traded · $30.3K in the last day · $281K resting liquidity · $256K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column…
Pricing Polymarket 67%
Sources
- After the hottest summer on record, where will September rank in the history books? foxweather.com
- Where will the US Space Academy be based? NASA wants class to start by 2028 space.com
- Colorado’s 2026 fall foliage, when and where will be the best to catch our beautiful fall colors kjct8.com
- Ole Miss football rankings: Where will Rebels fall after collapse vs Florida? sports.yahoo.com
- El Nino reaches super status: Where will it bring rain, drought and heat? aljazeera.com
Frequently asked questions
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket prices this 1 at 67%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
An El Niño event is currently active and intensifying. Extreme heat events have occurred in various regions during 2026. Wildfires are contributing to significant emissions. Global temperatures are a subject of ongoing concern and monitoring.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.