Science and Technology Polymarket July 20, 2026
2026 tracks toward second-hottest year as global temperature data builds
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket prices this 2 at 58%.
Global temperature readings through mid-2026 are positioning the year to rank as the second-warmest on record in NASA's Land-Ocean Temperature Index, the dataset that tracks combined land and ocean surface temperatures back to 1880. The specific question is whether 2026 finishes behind only 2024 — which broke the previous record set in 2023 — or slips further down the ranking. Forecasters had expected 2026 to cool slightly from 2024's peak, which was amplified by a fading El Niño, but persistent ocean warmth has kept the year in contention for the number-two slot. Traders put the probability of a second-place finish at 58%, a level that has drifted over the past week as monthly readings continue arriving. The resolution comes December 30, when the full-year index figure becomes available.
Background
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies publishes the Land-Ocean Temperature Index as a rolling dataset, ranking each calendar year against every other year with data. The index uses surface temperature measurements from thousands of weather stations and ocean buoy and ship observations, producing a global mean temperature anomaly relative to a baseline period. Years are ranked in descending order, with the hottest as number one. 2024 set the current record, surpassing 2023, which itself had broken a streak of record-setting years. The question of where 2026 lands depends on whether residual ocean heat and background warming offset the cooling influence of the La Niña conditions that developed in late 2025. Resolution uses the figure published in the index table at year's end, regardless of later revisions.
The precedent
- 2024 surpassed 2023 as the hottest year in NASA's Land-Ocean Temperature Index, making 2023 the second-warmest year on record as of early 2025.
- The years 2015 through 2024 each ranked among the top ten warmest years in the NASA index, with the record being broken multiple times in that span.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- 2024 is the hottest year on record in the Land-Ocean Temperature Index
- 2023 previously held the record before 2024 surpassed it
- 2026 is expected to be cooler than 2024 but still among the warmest years
- The Land-Ocean Temperature Index ranks years by combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly
What to watch
Monthly temperature anomalies from NOAA and NASA through the fall will sharpen the picture, with the October and November readings likely to settle whether 2026 holds at second or drifts lower. The market resolves December 30, 2026, the day the full-year Land-Ocean Temperature Index figure becomes available. A shift in -4 pts would signal that incoming data is changing the outlook for the runner-up slot.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 2 at 58%.
24h -1.0 pts 7d -4.0 pts
$3.2M traded · $20.7K in the last day · $124K resting liquidity · $199K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column…
Pricing Polymarket 58%
Sources
- Where Do You Think the Jets Will Take the Biggest Statistical Jump in 2026? newyorkjets.com
- If Florida Slashes Property Taxes, Where Will the Money Come From? nytimes.com
- Where will the next World Cups be held? FIFA host countries for 2030, 2034 sports.yahoo.com
- Cubs BCB After Dark: Where will the Cubs finish this year? bleedcubbieblue.com
- Where Will Bubba Wallace's Roller Coaster Of A Season Go Next? foxsports.com
Frequently asked questions
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket prices this 2 at 58%.
What do the sources agree on?
2024 is the hottest year on record in the Land-Ocean Temperature Index 2023 previously held the record before 2024 surpassed it 2026 is expected to be cooler than 2024 but still among the warmest years The Land-Ocean Temperature Index ranks years by combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.