Science and Technology Polymarket July 13, 2026
2026 Global Temperature Rank: Will it be Second Hottest?
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket prices this 2 at 63%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The scientific community is keenly observing global temperature trends, with 2026 showing signs of being an exceptionally warm year. Recent climate research indicates 'impossible' heat and record ocean temperatures globally, according to Carbon Brief. This follows a period where the US faced a scorching Independence Day, further highlighting the ongoing warming trend. The potential for 2026 to rank as the second hottest year on record is a significant concern for climate scientists, who continue to track these developments closely. While the reporting underscores the severity of current heat, prediction market traders assign a 63% probability to 2026 ranking as the second hottest year, a figure that has seen a -4 pts shift over the past week.
Background
Global temperatures have been on a consistent upward trajectory for decades, a phenomenon attributed by scientists to climate change. The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, the primary metric for this market, provides a comprehensive dataset for ranking annual temperatures. This index combines land and ocean surface temperature data to offer a holistic view of Earth's warming. The ongoing rise in temperatures has led to a series of record-breaking years, with recent reports from Carbon Brief highlighting new global ocean temperature records. The specific question being evaluated is whether 2026 will achieve the numerical rank of 2 when compared against all other years in this dataset.
The precedent
- The warmest year on record, according to NOAA, was 2023, surpassing the previous record set in 2016.
- Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Global temperatures are experiencing a significant warming trend.
- Record-breaking ocean temperatures have been observed recently.
- Climate change is a primary driver behind these temperature increases.
How outlets frame it
- carbonbrief: Emphasizes the severity of current climate conditions, using phrases like 'impossible' heat and highlighting new climate research findings.
What to watch
Scientists will continue to monitor global temperature data throughout the year, with the final resolution for 2026's temperature rank expected around December 30, 2026. Key indicators to watch include continued reports on ocean temperatures and regional heatwaves, which could influence the overall annual average. Any further 'heat alerts' or significant deviations from historical averages in the coming months will be crucial for determining the year's final ranking.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 2 at 63%.
24h -1.0 pts 7d -4.0 pts
$3.1M traded · $37.5K in the last day · $97K resting liquidity · $182K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column…
Pricing Polymarket 63%
Sources
- Where Will Top 2026 MLB Draft Picks Rank As Top 100 Prospects? baseballamerica.com
- MLB Draft 2026 Milwaukee Brewers Mock Draft Roundup: Where will the Crew go in Round 1? brewcrewball.com
- Where will LeBron play in 2026-27? Breaking down the top contenders fox4kc.com
- If Florida Slashes Property Taxes, Where Will the Money Come From? nytimes.com
- America at 500: Where will we be in space in 2276? space.com
Frequently asked questions
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket prices this 2 at 63%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Global temperatures are experiencing a significant warming trend. Record-breaking ocean temperatures have been observed recently. Climate change is a primary driver behind these temperature increases.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.