Science and Technology · Kalshi ·July 24, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo

SpaceX pushes Starship Flight 13 toward July 23 retry after abort

SpaceX is targeting July 23 for a second attempt at Starship Flight 13 from its Boca Chica, Texas launch site after the first try aborted at the last second on July 16, according to Spaceflight Now, which reports that post-abort engine work has been completed and the vehicle is ready for another go. The retry looms large for SpaceX's monthly cadence: the company has already launched Northrop Grumman's MRV-MEP satellite-servicing mission on July 21, and clearing more than 11 launches in July would mark one of its busiest single months on record. Reuters separately noted that SpaceX shares slid following the initial abort, underscoring the commercial stakes riding on each Starship milestone. Traders put the probability of exceeding 11 July launches at 99%, broadly consistent with the pace the reporting describes.

Background

Starship Flight 13 is the latest in SpaceX's iterative test campaign for its fully reusable super-heavy-lift rocket, which the company is developing for lunar and Mars missions under NASA's Artemis program. The July 16 abort interrupted what would have been the vehicle's thirteenth integrated flight; engineers have since addressed engine issues flagged during the scrub. SpaceX's broader July manifest includes routine Falcon 9 missions carrying Starlink satellites and customer payloads alongside the Starship test, and the company has been steadily increasing its annual launch tempo year over year. The specific question at issue is whether SpaceX's total July launch count — across all vehicles — exceeds 11 before the month ends.

The precedent

• SpaceX set a company record with 61 orbital launches in 2024, averaging roughly 5 per month across the full year.
• Starship's first integrated flight test in April 2023 ended in an explosive mid-air breakup roughly four minutes after liftoff.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

The Starship Flight 13 retry is the immediate catalyst: a successful July 23 launch would add to the monthly count and validate post-abort engine fixes, while another scrub could push the attempt later in the week. Watch also for any additional Falcon 9 missions SpaceX schedules in the final days of July, as each would count toward the total. The market resolves on August 1, 2026.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.