Politics Kalshi July 23, 2026
Darline Graham Nordone seeks full term in Lindsey Graham's Senate seat
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Kalshi prices this Darline Graham at 70%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Darline Graham Nordone, a former South Carolina governor and presidential candidate, has entered the crowded field to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham in the Senate special primary. With the support of former President Trump, Nordone is a clear favorite among traders, with the crowd's probability on her win standing at 70%. Despite the crowded field, Nordone's entry has been met with significant interest, with total money traded on this market reaching $731K and a notable increase in the past 24 hours of +3 pts.
Background
The Senate special primary is set to take place on August 11, 2027, and will determine the Republican candidate to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. The field is crowded, with several candidates vying for the seat, including former Rep. Mark Sanford. Nordone's entry has been met with significant interest, with many outlets reporting on her candidacy and the potential implications for the Republican party in South Carolina.
The precedent
- No sitting governor has won the nomination since 1972
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Senate special primary is set to take place on August 11, 2027
- Darline Graham Nordone has entered the crowded field to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham
- The field is crowded, with several candidates vying for the seat
How outlets frame it
- Politico: emphasizes the crowded field and the potential implications for the Republican party in South Carolina
- Fox News: highlights the support of former President Trump for Nordone's candidacy
What to watch
The upcoming Senate special primary on August 11, 2027, will be a key test for Nordone's candidacy and the Republican party in South Carolina. A notable increase in the past 24 hours of +3 pts suggests that traders are closely watching the situation, and a move in the opposite direction could signal a shift in the market's confidence in Nordone's chances.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Darline Graham at 70%.
24h +3.0 pts
$731K traded · $68.6K in the last day · $448K open interest
Resolves on: If Darline Graham Nordone wins the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 70% Polymarket 70%
Sources
- Trump urges Darline Graham to run in South Carolina special election cnn.com
- Darline Graham will seek a full term for late brother’s seat in South Carolina rollcall.com
- ‘Run, Darline, run!’: Trump endorses Lindsey Graham’s sister for full Senate term theguardian.com
- 'I'm in.' Darline Graham says she will run for a full term in Lindsey Graham's Senate seat pbs.org
- There’s a power struggle brewing in South Carolina, and Trump might not win politico.com
Frequently asked questions
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Kalshi prices this Darline Graham at 70%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The Senate special primary is set to take place on August 11, 2027 Darline Graham Nordone has entered the crowded field to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham The field is crowded, with several candidates vying for the seat
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If Darline Graham Nordone wins the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.