Politics Kalshi June 24, 2026
Darializa Avila Chevalier wins NY-13 Democratic primary
NY-13 Democratic nominee?
Kalshi prices this Darializa Avila Chevalier at 100%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Darializa Avila Chevalier has won the Democratic primary for New York's 13th Congressional District, defeating incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat. This development comes after a competitive race that drew attention from various quarters, including Zohran Mamdani, who backed Avila Chevalier. The market reflects a strong confidence in her victory, with 100% indicating an overwhelming favorite. However, it's essential to note that such markets often reflect a combination of publicly available information and the collective assessment of participants.
Background
The 13th Congressional District of New York is one of the districts that make up the U.S. state of New York. The district has been represented by Rep. Adriano Espaillat since 2017. Darializa Avila Chevalier, a candidate backed by Zohran Mamdani, ran against Espaillat in the Democratic primary. The primary is a crucial step in the electoral process, as the Democratic nominee will likely face a Republican or other party candidates in the general election. The race has garnered attention due to the involvement of various political figures and interest groups.
What the coverage agrees on
- Darializa Avila Chevalier won the Democratic primary for NY-13.
- The primary was between Darializa Avila Chevalier and Adriano Espaillat.
- Zohran Mamdani backed Darializa Avila Chevalier.
How outlets frame it
- The New York Times: Provides information on the latest polls for the NY-13 Congressional District.
- NBC News: Reports on Darializa Avila Chevalier's victory over Rep. Adriano Espaillat.
What to watch
The general election for the NY-13 House seat is expected to take place later this year. The focus now shifts to how Darializa Avila Chevalier prepares for the general election and how her opponents react to her primary victory.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Darializa Avila Chevalier at 100%.
24h +66.9 pts
$642K traded · $299K in the last day · $290K open interest
Resolves on: If Darializa Avila Chevalier wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 100%
Sources
- Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat loses primary to Mamdani-backed Darializa Avila Chevalier nbcnews.com
- New York 13th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls nytimes.com
- Adriano Espaillat, Darializa Avila Chevalier to face off in race for NY's 13th Congressional District abc7ny.com
- Israel, AIPAC and Zohran Mamdani take center stage in Tuesday’s NY primaries timesofisrael.com
- Full Debate: Adriano Espaillat, Darializa Avila Chevalier face off in NY-13 debate ny1.com
- Telemundo 47 announces June 17 Democratic Congressional Primary Debate featuring NY-13 candidates nbcnewyork.com
- 2026 NY-13 Congressional Democratic Primary | Polls & Odds cityandstateny.com
- Lefty NYC group not supporting Mamdani-backed DSA NY-13 candidate over controversial Hamas comments nypost.com
Frequently asked questions
NY-13 Democratic nominee?
Kalshi prices this Darializa Avila Chevalier at 100%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Darializa Avila Chevalier won the Democratic primary for NY-13. The primary was between Darializa Avila Chevalier and Adriano Espaillat. Zohran Mamdani backed Darializa Avila Chevalier.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If Darializa Avila Chevalier wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.