Politics Kalshi June 16, 2026 Crowd ahead of press
Trump seeks impeachment expungement
Will President Trump be impeached during his term?
Kalshi prices this 63% yes. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
With 63% indicating a likely impeachment, President Trump is working on a plan to expunge his two impeachments, as reported by multiple outlets. The essential background is that Trump has been impeached twice, and this move is seen as an attempt to clear his record. What is at stake is the historical record of his presidency, and what to watch next is whether Congress will approve his request. The $262K traded on this market suggests moderate interest in the outcome.
Market lensThe crowd's money is ahead of the press in anticipating impeachment, despite the recent focus on expungement.
What the coverage agrees on
- Trump is working on a plan to expunge his impeachments
- The plan is seen as an attempt to clear his record
Where sources diverge
- Whether Congress will approve Trump's request
- The implications of expungement for Trump's historical record
How outlets frame it
- The New Republic: Trump wants to 'expel' representatives who threaten to impeach him, a more aggressive stance than reported by other outlets
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this 63% yes.
24h 0.0 pts
$262K traded · $881 in the last day · $78.2K open interest
Resolves on: If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 63%
Sources
- Exclusive | Trump and Allies Are Working on Plan to ‘Expunge’ Impeachments wsj.com
- Trump asking Congress for symbolic expunging of his two impeachments theguardian.com
- Trump Is Pressuring Congress To Expunge His Impeachments, Report Says forbes.com
- Carville: Trump ‘going to walk away’ from presidency by next Easter thehill.com
- Trump, allies working on plan to void his impeachments, WSJ reports reuters.com
- Jeffries: Democrats aren't focused on Trump impeachment 'at this moment' cnbc.com
- Odds for Trump to be Impeached: Trade on Politics Prediction Markets federalnewsnetwork.com
- Trump Wants to “Expel” Representatives Who Threaten to Impeach Him newrepublic.com
Frequently asked questions
Will President Trump be impeached during his term?
Kalshi prices this 63% yes. The market is more confident than the current reporting.
What do the sources agree on?
Trump is working on a plan to expunge his impeachments The plan is seen as an attempt to clear his record
Where do the sources disagree?
Whether Congress will approve Trump's request The implications of expungement for Trump's historical record
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 8 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.