Markets Kalshi August 1, 2026
Federal Reserve raises interest rates above 3.50% after July meeting
✗ The market missed this — resolved Above 3.50%.
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
Kalshi prices this Above 2.75% at 99%.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates above 3.50% following its July 29 meeting, a move that caught investors off guard. Despite investors seeing Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference as dovish, a closer reading of his prepared remarks suggested he may be close to raising interest rates. The Fed's decision was seen as a response to growing inflation concerns, with the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increasing above 3.50%. The market had overwhelmingly favored 'Above 2.75%', with odds of 99% at the time of the decision, but ultimately missed the mark. The move was seen as a surprise, with a relatively flat 24-hour move in odds of 0 pts.
Background
The Federal Reserve has been closely watching inflation rates, and the recent increase in prices has raised concerns about the state of the economy. Chairman Kevin Warsh has been a key figure in the Fed's decision-making process, and his prepared remarks have been closely scrutinized by investors. The Fed's decision to raise interest rates is seen as a response to these growing concerns.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates above 3.50% following its July 29 meeting.
- The move was seen as a response to growing inflation concerns.
- Chairman Kevin Warsh's prepared remarks were closely scrutinized by investors.
How outlets frame it
- CNBC: Investors saw Warsh's press conference as dovish, but a closer reading of the Fed chair's prepared remarks suggests he may be close to raising interest rates.
- Axios: The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed.
What to watch
The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates will have significant implications for the US economy, particularly in terms of inflation and economic growth. Investors will be closely watching the Fed's next move, and the impact of this decision on the economy will be closely monitored.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this Above 2.75% at 99%.
24h 0.0 pts
$115K traded · $52.4K in the last day · $89.5K open interest
Resolves on: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 99%
Sources
- Kevin Warsh says Fed will 'deliver price stability' after decision to hold rates at July meeting. Will there be a hike in September? chase.com
- Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Here is what experts predict for July's meeting. cbsnews.com
- Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: July 29, 2026 advisorperspectives.com
- Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady. Here's what that means for consumers cnbc.com
- WATCH: Fed chair Warsh holds news conference after leaving interest rate unchanged pbs.org
Frequently asked questions
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
Kalshi prices this Above 2.75% at 99%.
What do the sources agree on?
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates above 3.50% following its July 29 meeting. The move was seen as a response to growing inflation concerns. Chairman Kevin Warsh's prepared remarks were closely scrutinized by investors.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.