Crypto Kalshi August 13, 2026 Coverage disputes this
Bitcoin hovers near $65,000 as Trump Media trims holdings
Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Kalshi prices this 52% yes. The coverage disputes this.
Bitcoin is trading back above $65,000 in mid-August 2026, reclaiming a level it has repeatedly tested this year, according to Yahoo Finance. The price sits well below the $100,000 milestone many bulls have eyed and more than $15,000 above the $50,000 floor that would mark a sharp reversal. Against that backdrop, CoinDesk reports Trump Media has moved 7,000 bitcoin out of its holdings, leaving only what appears to be loan collateral — a corporate-treasury signal that complicates the demand picture. Traders put the odds of BTC hitting $50,000 before $100,000 at roughly 52%, a coin-flip reading that underscores how torn participants are about whether the next major move is up or down, with the question settling December 31, 2026.
Background
Bitcoin's 2026 price action has been range-bound, with $65,000 serving as a recurring pivot rather than a clean breakout level. Trump Media's bitcoin holdings had been a notable corporate-demand story, but CoinDesk's August reporting that the company moved 7,000 BTC — retaining only likely loan collateral — signals that at least one high-profile buyer is pulling back. Separately, BBC reports a lawsuit challenging Truth Social's plan to sell early access to Trump's market-moving posts, and Trump Media posted a quarterly loss while touting the service as a new revenue stream. The proposition at issue is directional: whether BTC falls to $50,000 or climbs to $100,000 first before year-end.
What the coverage agrees on
- Bitcoin is trading above $65,000 as of mid-August 2026
- Trump Media has moved 7,000 bitcoin out of its holdings
- Trump Media posted a quarterly loss
Where sources diverge
- Whether Bitcoin's repeated tests of $65,000 constitute a breakout or a ceiling remains unclear from the coverage
- The significance of Trump Media's BTC withdrawal — whether it signals reduced conviction or is routine treasury management — is not settled by the reports
How outlets frame it
- CoinDesk: Foregrounds Trump Media's bitcoin Treasury movements as a meaningful corporate-demand signal, framing the 7,000-BTC transfer as leaving only likely loan collateral — implying a strategic pullback rather than routine rebalancing.
- Yahoo Finance: Emphasizes Bitcoin's price action and the repeated $65,000 level, framing it as 'breaking past yet again,' which leans bullish on near-term momentum without addressing corporate-demand headwinds.
What to watch
The resolution deadline is December 31, 2026, giving roughly 141 days for BTC to hit either threshold. Key near-term catalysts include any further Trump Media bitcoin movements, developments in the Truth Social lawsuit, and whether Bitcoin can sustain a breakout above the $65,000 range it has repeatedly tested or loses support toward lower levels.
The numbers behind this
Kalshi prices this 52% yes.
24h +5.0 pts
$98.5K traded · $13K in the last day · $26.8K open interest
Resolves on: If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Pricing Kalshi 52%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Kalshi prices this 52% yes. The coverage disputes this.
What do the sources agree on?
Bitcoin is trading above $65,000 as of mid-August 2026 Trump Media has moved 7,000 bitcoin out of its holdings Trump Media posted a quarterly loss
Where do the sources disagree?
Whether Bitcoin's repeated tests of $65,000 constitute a breakout or a ceiling remains unclear from the coverage The significance of Trump Media's BTC withdrawal — whether it signals reduced conviction or is routine treasury management — is not settled by the reports
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 2 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.