Entertainment Polymarket September 11, 2026
Hope's Opening Weekend Box Office Under $6 Million
"Hope" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this <6m at 93%. The reporting broadly agrees.
The new film "Hope" is expected to gross under $6 million at the domestic box office during its opening weekend, September 11-13. This figure comes amidst a broader conversation about Hollywood's post-COVID recovery, with some outlets highlighting a "box office comeback" over summer 2026. While "Hope" reportedly beat "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" on its opening day, early critical reception for the action epic has been poor, with one reviewer calling it "a mess." The crowd's probability on "Hope" earning less than $6 million stands at 93%, reflecting a strong consensus around a modest opening.
Background
The box office performance of "Hope" is being closely watched as part of a larger trend in Hollywood's recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. Summer 2026 has been cited as offering a "glimmer of hope" for the industry, with other films like "Practical Magic 2" also vying for audience attention. While some films, such as "DIGGER" and "VERITY," have shown strong tracking, "Hope" enters the weekend with lower expectations. The market tracking its opening weekend gross has seen its odds for a sub-$6 million debut climb steadily, with +13.4 pts over the last day alone, suggesting a growing belief in a softer opening for the film.
The precedent
- The domestic box office for 2025 was approximately $8.9 billion, a significant decline from the pre-pandemic high of $11.4 billion in 2019.
- Historically, films with strong critical reception tend to have longer theatrical runs and better word-of-mouth, impacting total gross beyond opening weekend.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- "Hope" is opening on the weekend of September 11-13, 2026.
- The film has received negative critical reviews.
- The summer 2026 box office is being viewed as a period of recovery for Hollywood.
How outlets frame it
- IMDb: Highlights "Hope's" opening day success over "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," framing it as a significant win despite overall low expectations.
- Fox News: Emphasizes the broader positive trend of a "box office comeback" in summer 2026, positioning "Hope's" release within this hopeful narrative.
- Deadline: Focuses on "Practical Magic 2" as a key film for keeping the box office "alive," suggesting "Hope" may be less central to the overall recovery narrative.
- FOX19 | Cincinnati: Delivers a harsh critical assessment of "Hope," calling the film "a mess," which likely contributes to lower box office expectations.
What to watch
The final domestic box office figures for "Hope" will be closely monitored as they are tallied through Sunday, September 13. The Numbers website will publish the definitive 3-day opening weekend gross, which will confirm whether the film indeed lands below the $6 million mark. Industry observers will also be watching how "Hope" compares to other films released this season, particularly those with higher initial forecasts, to gauge its overall impact on the ongoing box office recovery.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this <6m at 93%.
24h +13.4 pts
$193K traded · $193K in the last day · $31.3K resting liquidity · $41.6K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Hope" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes…
Pricing Polymarket 93%
Sources
- ‘Hope’ Beats ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ on Opening Day in a Huge U.S. Box Office Win imdb.com
- Box office comeback: How summer 2026 offers a glimmer of hope for Hollywood in the post-COVID era foxnews.com
- ‘Practical Magic 2’ Hopes To Weave Spell & Keep Box Office Alive; Global Outlook $58M-$63M – Box Office Preview deadline.com
- Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: DIGGER and VERITY ($20M+ Each) Pit a Cruise vs. Hathaway Showdown; Initial Outlooks for OTHER MOMMY and THE SOCIAL RECKONING – Box Office Theory boxofficetheory.com
- ‘Hope’: Na Hong-jin’s action epic is a mess fox19.com
Frequently asked questions
"Hope" Opening Weekend Box Office
Polymarket prices this <6m at 93%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
"Hope" is opening on the weekend of September 11-13, 2026. The film has received negative critical reviews. The summer 2026 box office is being viewed as a period of recovery for Hollywood.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Hope" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.