Politics Polymarket September 4, 2026
Trump Attends Golf, Rose Garden Events Amid Removal Speculation
Trump out as President by September 30?
Polymarket prices this 98% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
President Donald Trump continues to maintain a public schedule, including a Rose Garden dinner and plans to attend the Presidents Cup golf tournament in September, even as questions persist about the stability of his presidency. The White House confirmed his participation in a recent Rose Garden event, while ABC7 Chicago reported on his upcoming golf appearance at Medinah Country Club. These engagements come as a prediction market assesses the likelihood of his departure from office by September 30, with odds currently at 98% against such an outcome, reflecting little expectation of an imminent change.
Background
The speculation around President Trump's tenure has been a recurring theme throughout his time in office, with various political and legal challenges often fueling discussions about his future. This particular market focuses on a permanent removal or resignation from the presidency by the end of September 2026. Despite ongoing political discourse, recent polling in Tennessee, as reported by the Nashville Banner, indicates President Trump's approval has fallen below 50 percent. The market has remained largely stable over the period it has been tracked, with little movement in the past 24 hours, suggesting a consistent view among participants.
The precedent
- No US President has been permanently removed from office via impeachment and conviction.
- Richard Nixon is the only US President to resign from office, doing so in August 1974.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- President Trump is currently engaged in official duties and public appearances.
- He plans to attend the Presidents Cup golf tournament in September.
- He will mark 9/11 at the Pentagon.
How outlets frame it
- The New York Times: Highlights President Trump's decision to commemorate 9/11 at the Pentagon rather than Ground Zero, emphasizing his choice of location for the anniversary.
What to watch
With approximately 27 days remaining until the market resolves on September 30, observers will monitor President Trump's public appearances and any significant political developments. His planned attendance at the Presidents Cup golf tournament and his participation in 9/11 commemoration events at the Pentagon, as reported by The New York Times, will keep him in the public eye. A sudden shift in the political landscape or an unexpected announcement would be the primary catalysts for any change in the current outlook.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 98% no.
24h -0.4 pts
$98.3K traded · $67.6K in the last day · $63.8K resting liquidity · $83.1K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment…
Pricing Polymarket 98%
Sources
- President Donald Trump says he'll attend Presidents Cup golf tournament at Medinah Country Club in September abc7chicago.com
- President Trump Participates in a Rose Garden Dinner whitehouse.gov
- President Trump approval falls below 50 percent in Tennessee nashvillebanner.com
- Mayor Mamdani to attend September 11 ceremonies for 25th anniversary of terror attacks abc7ny.com
- Trump Plans to Mark 9/11 at the Pentagon, Not Ground Zero nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions
Trump out as President by September 30?
Polymarket prices this 98% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
President Trump is currently engaged in official duties and public appearances. He plans to attend the Presidents Cup golf tournament in September. He will mark 9/11 at the Pentagon.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.