Entertainment Polymarket September 21, 2026
Spider-Man film shatters domestic box office record
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
Polymarket prices this 950 - 960m at 99%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day has officially claimed the title of the highest-grossing movie in domestic box office history, a significant milestone achieved just five days ago. The film has now surpassed 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' to set a new benchmark, with all major outlets confirming the record-breaking performance. This achievement comes as the film approaches its September 30 resolution date for its total domestic gross, with many anticipating it will land in the "950 - 960m" range. The market currently places the odds of reaching this specific range at 99%, reflecting strong confidence in its continued success.
Background
Released on July 31, 2026, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" quickly gained momentum, with Forbes reporting 12 days ago that it was on the verge of breaking the all-time domestic box office record. The film's trajectory has been closely watched by industry analysts, especially given the historical significance of the record held by 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'. The market's odds have seen fluctuations over the tracking period, reflecting the dynamic nature of box office projections, but recent performance has solidified its position.
The precedent
- 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' held the domestic box office record for several years after its release in 2015.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the highest-grossing domestic film of all time.
- The film surpassed 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'.
What to watch
The final domestic gross for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" by September 30, 2026, will be the key figure to watch. The Numbers' "Daily Box Office Performance" figures will provide the definitive resolution for this market. With only about 10 days remaining until the resolution date, any significant fluctuations in daily grosses could still impact the final reported total, though the current trajectory appears strong.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 950 - 960m at 99%.
24h +0.2 pts 7d +8.2 pts
$984K traded · $28.4K in the last day · $114K resting liquidity · $142K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30,…
Pricing Polymarket 99%
Sources
- ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Overtakes ‘Star Wars: Force Awakens’ as Highest-Grossing Movie of All Time at Domestic Box Office variety.com
- 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' Is Officially the Highest Grossing Film in Domestic Box Office History polygon.com
- ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ On Verge Of Breaking All-Time Domestic Box Office Record forbes.com
- ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ swings past ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ as highest-grossing film at domestic box office movin925.com
- Box Office: 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' Top-Grossing Movie Ever In U.S. deadline.com
Frequently asked questions
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
Polymarket prices this 950 - 960m at 99%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the highest-grossing domestic film of all time. The film surpassed 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30,…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.