Politics Polymarket August 29, 2026
Darline Graham Wins South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary Runoff
South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: Runoff Margin of Victory
Polymarket prices this Graham Nordone <5% at 98%.
Darline Graham won the Republican nomination in the South Carolina special Senate primary runoff, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman. Her victory, which came with a margin of less than five percent, was decisive enough to secure the nomination. This outcome was anticipated by the prediction market, which had assigned an overwhelming 98% probability to Graham winning by a narrow margin. The win highlights the continued impact of presidential endorsements in key primary races.
Background
The special primary runoff election was held to determine the Republican candidate for the US Senate seat left vacant by the death of Senator Lindsey Graham. Darline Graham, sister of the late senator, received the endorsement of President Donald Trump, a significant factor in her campaign. She faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a closely watched contest that drew attention from national political observers.
What the coverage agrees on
- Darline Graham won the South Carolina Republican Senate primary runoff.
- President Trump endorsed Darline Graham.
- The election was for the Senate seat previously held by Lindsey Graham.
How outlets frame it
- Axios: The victory of Darline Graham, President Trump's endorsed candidate, underscores Trump's continued influence in Republican primaries.
- insideclimatenews: Both President Donald Trump and a clean energy super PAC that backed Darline Graham are celebrating her victory over Rep. Ralph Norman.
What to watch
Darline Graham will now advance to the general election as the Republican nominee for the South Carolina Senate seat. Her next challenge will be the general election, where she will face the Democratic candidate to fill the vacancy, with the eyes of the state and national parties on the outcome.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Graham Nordone <5% at 98%.
24h +69.5 pts
$253K traded · $251K in the last day · $373K resting liquidity · $77.1K open interest
Resolves on: The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly…
Pricing Polymarket 98%
Sources
- Trump-Backed Darline Graham Wins South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Runoff outlookindia.com
- Live Results: South Carolina's special Senate GOP primary runoff pbs.org
- Graham wins GOP nod in South Carolina Senate primary runoff for late brother’s seat thehill.com
- South Carolina Senate Runoff Odds: Graham Vs Norman oddsshopper.com
- Live Runoff Results: South Carolina U.S. Senate, Georgia U.S. House, Oklahoma Governor 270towin.com
Frequently asked questions
South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: Runoff Margin of Victory
Polymarket prices this Graham Nordone <5% at 98%.
What do the sources agree on?
Darline Graham won the South Carolina Republican Senate primary runoff. President Trump endorsed Darline Graham. The election was for the Senate seat previously held by Lindsey Graham.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.