Politics Polymarket September 9, 2026
Fatima Shaban Wins Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election
Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Polymarket prices this Fatima Shaban at 88%.
Fatima Shaban won the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election, ensuring the Ontario NDP retained the seat. Shaban's victory was projected early by multiple news outlets, solidifying her position as the new Member of Provincial Parliament for the district. The by-election outcome saw the NDP successfully defend its territory, with the market's favored side, Fatima Shaban, closing with overwhelming odds of 88% that reflected strong confidence in her win.
What the coverage agrees on
- Fatima Shaban won the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
- Shaban's victory secured the seat for the Ontario NDP.
What to watch
With Fatima Shaban now representing Scarborough Southwest, attention will turn to her legislative agenda and how she integrates into the provincial parliament. Her win maintains the NDP's presence in the region, influencing future political dynamics within Ontario.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Fatima Shaban at 88%.
24h +8.0 pts 7d +30.0 pts
$82.6K traded · $37.5K in the last day · $84.8K resting liquidity · $48.7K open interest
Resolves on: A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Pricing Polymarket 88%
Sources
- Provincial Byelection 2026: Shaban holds Scarborough Southwest for Ontario NDP beachmetro.com
- NDP’s Fatima Shaban projected to win Scarborough Southwest byelection toronto.citynews.ca
- CP NewsAlert: NDP's Fatima Shaban projected to win Scarborough Southwest byelection nationalnewswatch.com
- NDP’s Fatima Shaban wins Scarborough Southwest byelection ottawa.citynews.ca
- Ontario Byelection Results Live: Who Won Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, York–Simcoe And Scarborough Southwest? Check Latest Updates sundayguardianlive.com
Frequently asked questions
Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Polymarket prices this Fatima Shaban at 88%.
What do the sources agree on?
Fatima Shaban won the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. Shaban's victory secured the seat for the Ontario NDP.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.