Politics Polymarket September 3, 2026
Scarborough Southwest By-Election Set for September 2026
Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Polymarket prices this Fatima Shaban at 87%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Voters in the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest are preparing for a by-election on September 3, 2026. The contest will determine who represents the district in the provincial legislature. Independent candidate Michael Perdelwitz has begun campaigning, offering his perspective on local issues. The election will resolve on the candidate who wins, with Fatima Shaban being a particular focus.
Background
The Scarborough Southwest electoral district is one of Ontario's provincial ridings, and by-elections are held to fill vacancies that arise between general elections. These contests can be closely watched as indicators of shifting political sentiment. The upcoming by-election on September 3, 2026, will select the new Member of Provincial Parliament for the area. The market has seen a +35 pts shift in the probability for Fatima Shaban over the past seven days, indicating increased attention on her candidacy.
How outlets frame it
- beachmetro.com: Focuses on Michael Perdelwitz's campaign by featuring his answers to questions, highlighting his independent candidacy.
What to watch
The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election is set for September 3, 2026. Official election results, as published by Elections Ontario, will definitively determine the winner. The period leading up to the election will likely see further candidate announcements and campaign activities.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Fatima Shaban at 87%.
24h +13.5 pts 7d +35.0 pts
$72.4K traded · $35.9K in the last day · $56K resting liquidity · $40.2K open interest
Resolves on: A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Pricing Polymarket 87%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Polymarket prices this Fatima Shaban at 87%. The reporting broadly agrees.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 1 source and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.