Geopolitics Polymarket August 24, 2026
Yabloko Seeks Duma Seats Despite Russia's Ban on Anti-War Party
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Polymarket prices this 99% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
Russia's anti-war party Yabloko is attempting to gain seats in the State Duma, despite being banned from the upcoming parliamentary elections. The party's chances of success are slim, with the Supreme Court's decision to remove them from the ballot. According to the market, Yabloko has a 99% chance of clearing the Duma threshold, a modest move of +1.9 pts over the past week, with essentially flat odds over the past 24 hours. The party has seen a surge in membership applications, with 8,000 people joining in the last two weeks.
Background
Yabloko, Russia's only anti-war party, was thrown off the ballot for the September 20 parliamentary elections by the Supreme Court. The party has just 4,000 members, but its appeal has grown, with 8,000 people applying to join in the last two weeks. The party's decision to continue participating in the elections is seen as a bold move, despite the odds being against them. Yabloko's leader has stated that the party will keep fighting, even if it means going to court.
The precedent
- No opposition party has been banned from Russian elections since 1991
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Yabloko was thrown off the ballot by the Supreme Court
- The party has seen a surge in membership applications
- The elections are scheduled to take place on September 20
Where sources diverge
- The party's chances of success are slim, with the Supreme Court's decision to remove them from the ballot
How outlets frame it
- The Bulwark: The Supreme Court's decision to remove Yabloko from the ballot is a worrying sign for the state of democracy in Russia
- Meduza: Yabloko's decision to continue participating in the elections is a bold move, despite the odds being against them
What to watch
The outcome of Yabloko's bid to gain seats in the State Duma will be decided on September 20, when the elections take place. A significant increase in support for the party could signal a shift in the political landscape, but the party's chances of success remain slim.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 99% no.
24h +0.1 pts 7d +1.9 pts
$128K traded · $32.8K in the last day · $144K resting liquidity · $82.4K open interest
Resolves on: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution. The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the…
Pricing Polymarket 99%
Sources
- Russia’s Supreme Court threw Yabloko off September’s Duma ballot. The antiwar party has just 4,000 members, but 8,000 people have applied to join in the last two weeks. meduza.io
- The Real Danger of Russia’s Fake Elections - by Cathy Young thebulwark.com
- Russia Bans Only Anti-War Party From Elections novinite.com
- Russia’s only anti-war party just got banned from elections. Here’s what the ruling means for voters who want peace with Ukraine thestatesman.com
- What Did Russia’s Opposition Do When Yabloko Was Thrown Off the Ballot? Keep Fighting Itself. themoscowtimes.com
Frequently asked questions
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Polymarket prices this 99% no. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
Yabloko was thrown off the ballot by the Supreme Court The party has seen a surge in membership applications The elections are scheduled to take place on September 20
Where do the sources disagree?
The party's chances of success are slim, with the Supreme Court's decision to remove them from the ballot
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution. The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.