Science and Technology Polymarket August 21, 2026
Grok 4.6 model released to the public by SpaceXAI
Grok 4.6 released by...?
Polymarket prices this August 14 at 100%.
SpaceXAI released the Grok 4.6 model to the public, fulfilling the prediction made by the crowd. The decisive factor was Elon Musk's announcement that the model would be trained on all of SpaceX's data, making it a game-changer in the AI industry. This move was seen as a significant step forward, and the market's overwhelming favorite status for August 14 was vindicated, with the odds standing at 100% at the time of resolution. The sharp move in the past 24 hours, +21.5 pts, reflected the growing interest in the model's release. The total volume of money traded on this market was $263K, with a significant portion of it coming in the past 24 hours, $139K.
Background
The Grok 4.6 model was a highly anticipated release, with many expecting it to be a significant improvement over its predecessor. The model's training on all of SpaceX's data made it a game-changer in the AI industry, and its release was seen as a major milestone.
What the coverage agrees on
- SpaceXAI released the Grok 4.6 model to the public
- The model will be trained on all of SpaceX's data
How outlets frame it
- Business Insider: The release of the Grok 4.6 model is a significant step forward for the AI industry, and its impact will be felt for years to come.
- The New Stack: The model's training on all of SpaceX's data makes it a game-changer in the AI industry, and its release is a major milestone.
- x.ai: The release of the Grok 4.6 model opens up new possibilities for AI development, and its impact on the industry will be closely watched.
- The GitHub Blog: The model's availability in GitHub Copilot is a significant development, and its impact on the industry will be closely watched.
What to watch
The release of the Grok 4.6 model opens up new possibilities for AI development, and its impact on the industry will be closely watched.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this August 14 at 100%.
24h +21.5 pts
$263K traded · $139K in the last day · $153K resting liquidity · $100K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Elon Musk tells staff Grok will be trained on all of SpaceX's data: 'It will inherit your thoughts and ideas' businessinsider.com
- SpaceX Just Unveiled Grok 4.6. Musk Calls it “Objectively #1” In AI. Anthropic, OpenAI and This Stock May Be in Trouble. finance.yahoo.com
- SpaceXAI trained Grok 4.6 on something most AI labs throw away thenewstack.io
- Introducing Grok Bot x.ai
- Grok 4.6 is now available in GitHub Copilot github.blog
Frequently asked questions
Grok 4.6 released by...?
Polymarket prices this August 14 at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
SpaceXAI released the Grok 4.6 model to the public The model will be trained on all of SpaceX's data
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.