Geopolitics Polymarket August 22, 2026
Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall in China's east coast
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
Polymarket prices this 100% yes.
Super Typhoon Dolphin physically crossed the coastline of China on August 13, 2026, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to the east coast. The decisive factor was the storm's rapid intensification in the days leading up to landfall, catching many off guard. The market had favored 'Yes' with 100%, a significant move of +41.9 pts over the past week. The final 24 hours saw little change in the odds, +0.8 pts. The storm's impact was felt by over one million people evacuated from the affected areas, with widespread disruption to flights and daily life. The Chinese government's evacuation efforts were praised for their effectiveness in minimizing the loss of life.
Background
Super Typhoon Dolphin formed in the western Pacific Ocean in early August, with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) closely monitoring its development. As the storm approached the Chinese coast, the JMA issued warnings of strong winds and heavy rain, prompting evacuations and flight cancellations. The market had been tracking the storm's progress, with the odds favoring a landfall in China.
The precedent
- This is the strongest storm to hit China this year
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What the coverage agrees on
- Over one million people were evacuated from the affected areas
- Typhoon Dolphin made landfall in China's east coast
- The storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to the affected areas
How outlets frame it
- Al Jazeera: The evacuation efforts were praised for their effectiveness in minimizing the loss of life
- The Guardian: The storm's impact on local economies and infrastructure will be closely watched
- NBC News: The Chinese government's response to the storm will be under scrutiny
What to watch
The aftermath of Typhoon Dolphin's landfall will see a focus on relief efforts, with the Chinese government working to restore power and communication services to affected areas. The storm's impact on local economies and infrastructure will also be closely watched.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this 100% yes.
24h +0.8 pts 7d +41.9 pts
$220K traded · $34.9K in the last day · $59.1K resting liquidity · $63.9K open interest
Resolves on: This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan. The system's classification is determined by the single…
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- One million evacuated as Typhoon Dolphin pummels east China: What we know aljazeera.com
- Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall in China as its strongest storm this year theguardian.com
- Typhoon Dolphin hits China’s east coast, over 1 million evacuated nbcnews.com
- Month-old video of storm hitting eastern China misrepresented as Typhoon Dolphin factcheck.afp.com
- China: Typhoon Dolphin prompts evacuations, canceled flights dw.com
Frequently asked questions
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
Polymarket prices this 100% yes.
What do the sources agree on?
Over one million people were evacuated from the affected areas Typhoon Dolphin made landfall in China's east coast The storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to the affected areas
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan. The system's classification is determined by the single…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.