Entertainment · Polymarket ·July 31, 2026 ·Edited by Samuel Jo Crowd ahead of press

Netflix true-crime doc on Idaho college murders lands atop weekly rankings race

Netflix's true-crime documentary "The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare" has become the platform's most talked-about new release, with coverage from Time, Rolling Stone, Entertainment Weekly, the Wall Street Journal, and Decider all zeroing in on the film since it dropped. The documentary revisits the November 2022 killings of four University of Idaho students in Moscow, Idaho, a case that gripped national attention and culminated in the arrest and indictment of Bryan Kohberger. Outlets have emphasized the film's revelations, its shifting of investigative focus, and its stream-or-skip verdict, suggesting a title with broad audience pull. Traders put its odds of topping the US Netflix weekly chart at 96%, a level that aligns with the volume of mainstream reviews and feature treatment the film has received across major outlets. Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, reflecting viewership from the prior Monday-through-Sunday window.

Background

The documentary examines the stabbing deaths of Madison Mogen, Kaylee Goncalves, Xana Kernodle, and Ethan Chapin in an off-campus residence in Moscow, Idaho, in November 2022. The case drew sustained national media coverage before Washington State University PhD student Bryan Kohberger was arrested in December 2022 and charged with four counts of first-degree murder. Netflix's Top 10 lists, published weekly on top10.netflix.com, rank titles by total US views and have become a closely watched barometer of what is breaking through in streaming. The platform updates its TV rankings each Tuesday, and the August 4 update will capture the full first-week viewership window for "The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare," making it the definitive measure of the film's opening reach. The specific question at issue is whether that title ranks as the number-one US Netflix show when the list refreshes.

The precedent

• Netflix began publishing weekly Top 10 lists on top10.netflix.com in June 2021, ranking titles by total hours viewed and later by total views, making it the platform's official viewership barometer.
• The University of Idaho student murders in November 2022 drew sustained national media coverage for months, making it one of the most widely covered criminal cases of that year.

Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.

What to watch

Netflix updates its Top 10 US TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, at 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous Monday through Sunday. If the update does not appear by August 7 at 11:59 PM ET, the outcome defaults to "Other." Watch whether any competing title — a returning series or a surprise new release — generated enough weekly views to unseat the documentary, and whether Netflix's own promotional push translated into the top ranking.

AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.