Entertainment Polymarket August 11, 2026
The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare tops Netflix's US Top 10 list
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Polymarket prices this The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare at 96%.
The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare was ranked as the #1 US Netflix show, surpassing other popular titles. The decisive factor in its success was its gripping true story, which captivated audiences and left a lasting impression. With an overwhelming favorite in the market, the crowd's confidence in its win was reflected in the modest move in odds over the past 24 hours, +5.9 pts. As the market's favored side, 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' won with 96% probability, indicating a strong expectation of its success. The show's ability to shift the spotlight on Netflix and its disturbing details resonated with viewers, making it a standout title.
Background
The documentary series, which explores the murders of four University of Idaho students, has been a topic of interest for many. With its true story and gripping narrative, it was expected to perform well on the platform. The market's odds have climbed over the period, indicating a growing confidence in its success.
What the coverage agrees on
- The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare was ranked as the #1 US Netflix show.
- The documentary series explores the murders of four University of Idaho students.
- The show's true story and gripping narrative were key factors in its success.
- The success of 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' raises questions about the types of content that resonate with audiences.
How outlets frame it
- Time Magazine: The documentary series provides a thought-provoking look at the true story behind the murders, shifting the spotlight on Netflix.
- Decider: The show's disturbing details and gripping narrative make it a standout title on Netflix's US Top 10 list.
What to watch
The success of 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' on Netflix's US Top 10 list raises questions about the types of content that resonate with audiences. Will other true-crime documentaries follow in its footsteps, or will viewers seek out different types of content?
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare at 96%.
24h +5.9 pts
$47.3K traded · $23.8K in the last day · $53.7K resting liquidity · $25.9K open interest
Resolves on: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pricing Polymarket 96%
Sources
- The True Story Behind Netflix's 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' time.com
- ‘The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare’ Review: Shifting the Spotlight on Netflix wsj.com
- 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' Netflix Review: Stream It Or Skip It? decider.com
- ‘The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare’: 4 Things We Learned rollingstone.com
- 8 Disturbing Details Missing from ‘The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare’ people.com
Frequently asked questions
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Polymarket prices this The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare at 96%.
What do the sources agree on?
The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare was ranked as the #1 US Netflix show. The documentary series explores the murders of four University of Idaho students. The show's true story and gripping narrative were key factors in its success. The success of 'The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare' raises questions about the types of content that resonate with audiences.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.