Politics Polymarket August 11, 2026
No handshake between Trump and Netanyahu at their meeting
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
Polymarket prices this No Handshake at 88%.
The meeting between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu ended with no handshake. The decisive factor was Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of a 15-point plan for Gaza by Donald Trump's Board of Peace. This rejection was seen as a key campaign issue ahead of Netanyahu's election, and the Trump administration viewed it as campaign rhetoric. The crowd had favored 'No Handshake' with 88%, but the odds had swung back and forth over the period. The market's favored side ultimately matched the actual outcome.
Background
The meeting between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu was seen as a key moment in their relationship, with tensions over a Gaza peace plan. The Israeli prime minister, facing a tough upcoming election, was trying to satisfy the sometimes competing demands of his right-wing base and of President Trump. The Trump administration was said to be unbothered by Netanyahu's rejection of the deal, viewing it as campaign rhetoric ahead of a general election.
How outlets frame it
- The New York Times: The Israeli prime minister's rejection of the deal was seen as a key campaign issue ahead of Netanyahu's election.
- sky: Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of the 15-point plan for Gaza was a significant moment in his relationship with Donald Trump.
What to watch
The outcome of this meeting has significant implications for the Gaza peace plan and the upcoming Israeli election. The Trump administration's views on the deal will likely continue to shape its relationship with Netanyahu.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this No Handshake at 88%.
24h +82.4 pts
$34.6K traded · $25K in the last day · $89.9K resting liquidity · $9.3K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu during the day (ET) of their next meeting by July 31, 2026. Any handshake recorded on that date (ET) will qualify. This market will resolve at the earlier of: (i) the publication of full-length video confirming the length of a qualifying handshake; or (ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the date of the meeting. If no handshake is confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the date of the meeting, or if no meeting takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed…
Pricing Polymarket 88%
Sources
- Video of Yamal rebuffing Trump handshake is AI-generated factcheck.afp.com
Frequently asked questions
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
Polymarket prices this No Handshake at 88%.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu during the day (ET) of their next meeting by July 31, 2026. Any handshake recorded on that date (ET) will qualify. This market will resolve at the earlier of: (i) the publication of full-length video confirming the length of a qualifying handshake; or (ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the date of the meeting. If no handshake is confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the date of the meeting, or if no meeting takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed…
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 1 source and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.