Politics Polymarket August 24, 2026
Chuck Gray wins Wyoming Republican primary
WY-AL Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Chuck Gray at 100%.
Chuck Gray won the Republican primary for Wyoming's At-Large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Gray's victory was decisive, with little information available on the margin of his win. The outcome was not surprising, given his status as the market's overwhelming favorite. The market had Gray as a 100% favorite, with odds moving +64.5 pts over the past week and +25.5 pts in the past 24 hours. Despite the sudden interest, with $97.5K traded in the last day, the market's confidence in Gray's victory was not shaken.
Background
The Republican primary for Wyoming's At-Large congressional district seat was held on August 18, 2026. The contest drew attention due to the crowded field of candidates. The outcome was largely anticipated, with Gray seen as a strong contender.
What the coverage agrees on
- Chuck Gray won the Republican primary for Wyoming's At-Large congressional district seat
- The primary was held on August 18, 2026
How outlets frame it
- Casper Star-Tribune: The outcome was not surprising, given Gray's status as the favorite.
- Fox News: The win sets Gray up to contest the seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
What to watch
The win sets Gray up to contest the seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome of the election will determine who represents Wyoming in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Chuck Gray at 100%.
24h +25.5 pts 7d +64.5 pts
$185K traded · $97.5K in the last day · $46.5K resting liquidity · $87.9K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the Wyoming At-Large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Pricing Polymarket 100%
Sources
- Wyoming GOP House race is over: Chuck Gray takes the nomination - Casper Star-Tribune trib.com
- Trump-aligned conservative emerges from crowded primary to decide who fills Wyoming’s lone House seat foxnews.com
- Wyoming secretary of State wins GOP primary for open House seat thehill.com
- What to watch in the Alaska and Wyoming primary elections aljazeera.com
- Wyoming House Primary Odds: Kalshi Stopped Reading the Poll oddsshopper.com
Frequently asked questions
WY-AL Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Chuck Gray at 100%.
What do the sources agree on?
Chuck Gray won the Republican primary for Wyoming's At-Large congressional district seat The primary was held on August 18, 2026
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the Wyoming At-Large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 5 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.