Politics Polymarket August 17, 2026
Chuck Gray Favored in Wyoming Republican Primary
WY-AL Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Chuck Gray at 69%. The reporting broadly agrees.
Chuck Gray is favored to win the Wyoming Republican primary, with traders putting him at 69%, even though a recent poll shows him at 66¢. The primary will take place on August 18, with the winner set to contest the seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Gray has been a prominent figure in Wyoming politics for years, serving in the state legislature and as a state representative.
Background
The Wyoming Republican primary has been a closely watched contest, with several candidates vying for the nomination. Chuck Gray has been a strong contender, with a reputation for conservative politics and a strong track record in the state legislature. The primary will be held on August 18, with the winner set to face off against the Democratic nominee in the general election.
What the coverage agrees on
- The primary will take place on August 18, 2026
- The winner of the primary will contest the seat in the 2026 midterm elections
What to watch
The outcome of the primary will be decided on August 18, with the winner set to be announced shortly after the polls close. The general election is set to take place in November, with the winner of the primary facing off against the Democratic nominee.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Chuck Gray at 69%.
24h +9.0 pts 7d +31.0 pts
$66.1K traded · $20K in the last day · $370K resting liquidity · $23.5K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the Wyoming At-Large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Pricing Polymarket 69%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
WY-AL Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Chuck Gray at 69%. The reporting broadly agrees.
What do the sources agree on?
The primary will take place on August 18, 2026 The winner of the primary will contest the seat in the 2026 midterm elections
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the Wyoming At-Large congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 2 sources and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.