Politics Polymarket August 10, 2026
Minnesota's 5th District GOP primary pits Dalia Al-Aqidi for nomination
MN-05 Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Dalia Al-Aqidi at 75%.
Minnesota's 5th Congressional District Republicans cast their primary ballots on August 11, 2026, choosing a nominee to carry the party into November's general election for the Minneapolis-centered seat. Dalia Al-Aqidi is the specific outcome in question — whether she wins the GOP nomination. The district, among the most Democratic in the state, has long sent Ilhan Omar to Washington, making any Republican nominee a steep underdog in November. Traders put Al-Aqidi at 75%, though public coverage of the race is sparse, with little beyond a Patch voter guide surfacing in the days before the vote.
Background
Minnesota's 5th District covers Minneapolis and surrounding Hennepin County and is reliably blue — Rep. Ilhan Omar has held the seat since 2019 after defeating a Democratic incumbent in a 2018 primary. Al-Aqidi, a journalist and Iraqi-American activist, previously challenged Omar in the 2024 cycle as a Republican and is now seeking the party's nomination again for 2026. The GOP primary winner faces an uphill general-election fight in a district Omar last carried with roughly three-quarters of the vote. A Patch primary guide published four days ago is the main local coverage to surface ahead of the vote.
The precedent
- Ilhan Omar has represented Minnesota's 5th Congressional District since January 2019, winning reelection in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- Dalia Al-Aqidi ran as a Republican for Minnesota's 5th District in the 2024 cycle against Ilhan Omar.
Context compiled by Crowdtells from the public record — verify before relying on it.
What to watch
Primary polls close on August 11, 2026, with results expected that evening. Watch whether Al-Aqidi faces any contested primary rivals — the thin coverage makes the field unclear — and whether the GOP coalesces quickly around the nominee for a November challenge to Omar or whoever the Democrats nominate. Official results should appear via the Minnesota Secretary of State and Republican Party channels.
The numbers behind this
Polymarket prices this Dalia Al-Aqidi at 75%.
24h -11.5 pts 7d +3.5 pts
$86K traded · $52.5K in the last day · $48.1K resting liquidity · $29K open interest
Resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Pricing Polymarket 75%
Sources
Frequently asked questions
MN-05 Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket prices this Dalia Al-Aqidi at 75%.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves on: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How are these odds set?
Prediction-market odds are prices set by people trading real money on the outcome, so the price reads as the crowd’s implied probability — not a guarantee or financial advice.
AI-written briefing grounded in 1 source and the live market, edited by Samuel Jo. Odds are crowd probabilities, not advice — how this works.